Ukraine’s strategic goal in 2024 is to make Russia’s war felt in Moscow
Ukraine is doubling down on remote warfare to smash Putin’s power base and ability to fight
Ukraine appears to have few resources with which to mount another counteroffensive this year. The European Union is upping its military aid from €28bn in the past two years to €21bn this year alone, but that is still not enough to replace US military aid, stalled in Congress.
The Financial Times reported last month that certain US officials had urged Ukraine to play defence in 2024 and conserve strength for a counteroffensive next year.
“Defensive operations do not necessarily present Ukraine with more opportunities to husband materiel and expand reserves,” wrote the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, in a scathing critique of that advice.
Talking to journalists on Sunday (February 25), Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy hinted that he would appease conservatives with a summit in Switzerland this spring to thrash out a peace proposal.
But he also said, “We believe that it is only right to get stronger on the battlefield... We do not want any negotiation formats or peace formulas to be imposed on us by countries that are not here today, not at war.”
If Ukraine is to fight for a better bargaining position, many experts feel offence is its only choice.
“We are headed towards a war of attrition, which plays into Russia’s hands,” Vienna-based geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova said. “Ukraine will launch a military offensive - it is clear,” said Tchakarova, who also predicted Russia’s 2022 invasion.
Ukraine has hinted as much. “We are doing everything possible and impossible to make a breakthrough,” defence minister Rustem Umerov said in the past week. “Plan 2024 is already there. We do not talk about it publicly. It is powerful, it is strong, it gives not only hope, but also will give results in 2024," he said.
Ukraine still aims to restore the borders Russia recognised in 1991, which means pushing Russian forces out of four partially occupied regions – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson - and also retaking Crimea.
A survey for the Munich Security Conference showed that at least three quarters of Ukrainians still back all of these goals.
But how will it be done?
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