Ukraine strikes deep in Crimea, weakening Russian offensive capacity
Ukraine continues to degrade Russia’s capabilities in the Kherson and Crimea regions, but is veiling its successes in secrecy and has yet to launch a major counteroffensive on the ground
A series of logistics disasters for Russian forces in the 25th week of the war may indicate that Ukraine’s promised southern counteroffensive is still unfolding, despite the absence so far of ramatic territorial gains.
An estimated nine Russian warplanes were destroyed on the ground at the airbase of Saki in the Crimea, 225km behind the frontline, in what would appear to be the first major Ukrainian attack on a Russian base on the peninsula.
Satellite imagery on August 9 showed seven planes completely destroyed at Saki, and others severely damaged.
Ukraine did not directly claim the attack, but Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address, “In just one day, the occupiers lost ten combat aircraft: nine in Crimea and one more in the direction of Zaporizhia.”
Russia’s defence ministry pointed no fingers, saying aviation munitions had been detonated at the base through negligence.
Since both sides were agnostic about the attack, neither supplied information as to the means. Precision guided rocket artillery used in US-supplied HIMARS systems has a range of 80-120km, and the Institute for the Study of War said the targets “are well beyond the range of the US-provided systems,” but that “Ukrainian forces have various systems that they could have used or modified.”
Ukrainian sources separately told the New York Times and Washington Post that partisans behind enemy lines or special forces had done the deed.
Separately on the same day, Ukrainian forces demonstrated their deep strike capability by destroying ammunition warehouses in Novooleksiivka in Crimea, 150km south of the frontline, and on the command post of the 217th Guards Airbourne Regiment at Maksyma Horkoho on the southwestern Kherson coast.
Ukrainian officials have warned since July that Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive to take back territories in Kherson oblast, and Ukrainian forces have often taken credit for destroying Russian ammunition warehouses and logistics chokepoints.
But lately here and in neighbouring Crimea, unclaimed deep strikes seem to be an intensifying Ukrainian tactic. The first came on July 31, when a presumed Ukrainian drone flew into Russia’s Black Sea fleet headquarters in Sevastopol on Russia’s Navy Day, wounding five people.
Ukraine again remained silent when a series of explosions shook the village of Mayskoye in the Crimea on August 16, as a suspected Russian ammunition depot went up in flames, forcing the evacuation of 3,000 people. Ukraine’s armed forces posted spectacular video of explosions over a wide area. Russia called it “a result of sabotage” without assigning blame.
Targeting logistics hubs has gone hand-in-hand with targeting logistics routes. Ukraine has in recent weeks weakened bridges across the Dnipro river in Kherson oblast to prevent the Russian army from resupplying its forward positions on the west bank. On August 10, Ukraine’s southern command said it rendered the bridge across the Dnipro at the Kakhovska hydro-electric power station unfit for use by the Russian military. That, says Britain’s defence ministry, means Russian forces are now restricted to two pontoon ferries they have brought.
“Bringing ammunition, fuel, and heavy equipment sufficient for offensive or even large-scale defensive operations across pontoon ferries or by air is impractical if not impossible,” believes the Institute for the Study of War, and says, “Russian forces on the west bank of the Dnipro will likely lose the ability to defend themselves against event limited Ukrainian counterattacks.”
Those counterattacks have yet to unfold at scale.
Russia’s nuclear wild card
Against these setbacks on the southern front, Russia appeared to hold Ukraine, and Europe, hostage to a risk of nuclear contamination.
Russian forces seized Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station – Europe’s biggest – early in the war. As fighting on the southern front has intensified, Russia has used the plant as an active base of operations.
On August 10, the Biden administration called on Russian forces to relocate. “Fighting near a nuclear plant is dangerous, and we continue to call on Russia to cease all military operations at or near Ukrainian nuclear facilities and return full control to Ukraine,” says White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre.
The EU and G7 echoed this call, appealing to Russia “to return control of all nuclear facilities within Ukraine's internationally recognized borders to ensure the safe operation of these facilities.”
A Ukrainian ministerial advisor said a nuclear accident at Zaporizhia could be ten times worse than the fallout from Chernobyl in 1986. “There were two thousand fuel assemblies at the 4th reactor of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant,” wrote Lala Tarapakina. “At the Zaporizia nuclear power plant, six reactors and the storage of spent nuclear fuel contain up to 18 thousand fuel assemblies (9-10 times more).”
Despite the obvious dangers, fighting in and near the plant contined on August 11. Ukraine’s nuclear power company, Energoatom, said five Russian shells landed near a nuclear materials storage and five near the plant’s fire department.
On August 14, Dmytro Orlov, mayor of the city of Energodar neighbouring the plant, said Russian forces shelled the city from the direction of the yachting marina, causing casualties.
On August 15, Ukraine’s state nuclear energy company, Energoatom, said Russian forces shelled the plant and its environs, damaging the local fire station and facilities within the plant, resulting in a risk of radioactive or hydrogen leaks. Zelenskyy called on Russia troops in the power plant to withdraw unconditionally.
Russia has also blamed Ukrainian forces for the attack on the plant on August 11. Colonel-general Mikhail Mizintsev, who co-ordinates what Russia calls its humanitarian response in Ukraine, said units of the Ukrainian 44th artillery brigade fired 152mm guns from Nikopol, across the Dnipro river from the plant.
The Russian head of the military-civilian administration of the Zaporozhye region, Yevhen Balitsky, claimed that Ukraine fired three shells at the nuclear waste storage facility to create a "dirty bomb" explosion and make the area uninhabitable.
Vladimir Rogov, a member of the Russian military administration of Zaporizhia, said Ukrainian forces shelled the power plant twice on August 11 using rocket artillery.
Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote to Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and UN secretary-general Antonia Guterres, requesting a joint mission to assess the military threat Russian forces pose to the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. "The Russians have actually turned Europe's largest nuclear power plant into a military base and are endangering the security of the continent," he said, accusing Russia of “nuclear terrorism”.
Russia in theory agreed to the mission but insisted on it approaching the plant from Russian-held territory, and appeared to issue veiled threats.
A Russian foreign ministry official said on August 16 it would be dangerous for the IAEA mission to approach the plant across the line of contact from the Ukrainian side, warning that “anything could happen,” given that the “Ukrainian armed forces are a heterogenous formation. These people would be ready to commit any provocation.”
Timeline: Week 25 of Russia’s war in Ukraine
August 10 – 16
August 10
Ukraine’s general staff say their forces repulsed Russian ground assaults in the vicinities of Slovyansk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka, in Donetsk oblast.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine “will not leave unanswered” the death of 13 civilians during the shelling of Marhanets, on the northern bank of the Dnipro river directly across from Zaporizhia nuclear power station. The deaths occurred during a hail of 80 rockets from Russian forces that struck 20 homes, says the governor of Dnipropetrovsk oblast.
Ukraine’s military intelligence reports that in Russian-occupied Melitopol, large companies are instructed to tell their employees that Ukraine has already been partitioned with the following messages: "Ukraine has been already divided. In the territory of western regions, Polish zlotys were put into circulation, in most shops there are double price tags. There is nowhere to run from Russia. Ukraine is not what it used to be."
The Washington Post reports that Ukraine has lost an estimated $12.4tr in energy, metals and mineral wealth to Russia in the occupied Luhansk and Donetsk regions, offering an explanation for why Russian president Vladimir Putin has prioritised those regions.
Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shmyal says the country’s creditors, led by the G7, have agreed a moratorium of debt repayments until at least 2024, with a possible extension for another year. That saves Ukraine $6bn in payments, he says, helping to stabilise the economy and strengthen defence.
August 11
Ukraine’s general staff say their forces repulsed a Russian ground assault on Pisky near Avdiivka, in southern Donetsk oblast, inflicting losses. In northern and central Donetsk, Russian forces attempted ground assaults on Siversk and Bakhmut, respectively, but retreated.
Ukraine’s southern command says its forces destroyed a Russian artillery ammunition warehouse at Barvinok, 20km northwest of Kherson city, and the command post of the 126th Guards Coastal Defence Brigade in Novokamynaka, 60km east of Kherson city.
Deputy head of the Russian State Security Council Dmitry Medvedev visits the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) to discuss reconstruction and alleged crimes by Ukrainian nationalists. He is accompanied by Russian cabinet members and the head of the FSB.
Latvia’s parliament names Russia a state sponsor of terrorism because of its war in Ukraine.
Estonia forbids the right to entry of Russian nationals carrying Estonian-issued visas except for diplomatic, humanitarian and transportation personnel.
Ukrainian brigadier-general Oleksiy Gromov says 60% of Russia’s fighting force in Ukraine is made up of volunteers who have signed short-term contracts. Russia began seeking volunteers on a contract basis well after the beginning of hostilities on February 24. Gromov is saying that most of the original fighting force has been killed, wounded or withdrawn.
Donor countries attending the “Copenhagen Ukraine 2022” conference pledge $1.55bn in military aid. Denmark pledges $112mn of this.
August 12
Ukraine’s general staff report that Russian offensives in Horlivka and Zaitseve in Donetsk oblast were partly successful, and a series of ground assaults closer to Bakhmut are repulsed. Russia also fight towards Siversk, on northern Donetsk, and push outward from Donetsk city, in the southern part of the region.
Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai says Ukrainian partisans in occupied Verkhnokamyanska are still fighting Russians successfully.
Donetsk military administrator Pavlo Kyrylenko says Russian forces fire 11 rockets into Kramatorsk, damaging homes and forcing people to flee the cultural centre, where they sought shelter.
Ukrainian defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov says new M270 multiple launch rocket systems have arrived in Ukraine from Britain, without specifying how many. Each M270 system is equivalent to two HIMARS rocket artillery launchers. The first M270 systems arrived on July 15. MARS II systems, which are European variants of the M270, arrived on August 1. In each case, Ukraine did not specify the number of systems it had received.
August 13
Ukraine’s general staff say their forces defeat a Russian advance at Lozove and Shiroke in cenral Donetsk oblast, inflicting losses. They also defeat a Russian advance on Avdiivka in southern Donetsk, and a separate advance on Storozhov and Novosilka in Kherson oblast.
The Russian defence ministry announces it has occupied Pisky in Donetsk.
Ukraine’s military intelligence says Russian forces shell the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant from Vodyane, partially destroying the fire station and the first block of the pumping station of the Thermal and Underground Communications Workshop.
Vladimir Rogov, a member of the Russian military administration of Zaporizhia, says Ukrainian forces shell Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and the neighbouring city of Enerhodar. Luhansk People’s Republic ambassador to Russia, Rodion Miroshnik, says Ukrainian forces fired nine rounds of munitions on the plant.
Ukraine’s Kherson oblast administration says pensions are once again being paid out in settlements liberated from Russian occupation. Ukraine says it has liberated 53 settlements since August 2.
Ukrainian presidential advisor Andriy Yermak says Zuzana 2 self-propelled artillery has arrived in Ukraine from Slovakia.
Ukrainian commander in chief Valery Zaluzhny says he and US chairman of the joint chiefs Mark Milley estimate that a fifth of the units Russia deployed to Ukraine have been defeated. He also says “we are in desperate need of artillery fire,” stressing the oft-stated Ukrainian request for more rocket launchers.
Alexander Darchiev, director of the North America Department of the Russian foreign ministry, says a legislative proposal to name Russia a state sponsor of terrorism could lead to a complete rupture in diplomatic relations – something that did not happen even during the Cold War. “If it is implemented, it will mean that Washington has crossed the point of no return with the most serious collateral damage to bilateral diplomatic relations, up to a decrease in their level and even a break. the party has been warned," Darchiev told journalists.
Darchiev also says that Russia would respond to further shipments of advanced weaponry to Ukraine by broadening the war. “As for the correlation of massive supplies of Western weapons to Kyiv with the course and timing of the special military operation, it was clearly identified by Sergei Lavrov. Pumping Ukraine with more long-range weapons systems will lead to the fact that the geographical tasks of the special operation will be pushed back even further," he said. It was not clear if he meant spreading the war beyond Ukraine’s borders.
August 14
Ukraine’s general staff say they defeat Russian offensives on Soledar, Kodema, Yakovlivka, Vershini and Zaitsevo in central Donetsk oblast, near Bakhmut. They say Russian forces have partial success here, however. Further south, near Avdiivka, Ukrainian general staff say they defeat a Russian advance on Pisky, which Russia says it occupied a day earlier, and Krasnohorivka. In northern Donetsk oblast, Ukrainian general staff say they defeat attempted Russian advances on Spirny, Ivano-Darivka and Serebrianka.
Ukraine’s military intelligence says Russian occupation authorities in Kherson are gathering census information by issuing questionnaires to pensioners, public utility workers and anyone who queries the authorities. They are also allegedly threatening to dismiss health workers who refuse to be paid in Rubles.
Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai says Russian occupation forces are putting pressure on people made homeless by the war to participate in a referendum on the future of the region.
August 15
Ukraine’s general staff say their forces defeat a Russian reconnaissance at Vremivka in southern Donetsk oblast. They also say Ukrainian defenders repulse assaults at Soledar and Kodema in the vicinity of Bakhmut in central Donetsk. Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai says fighting is ongoing in the occupied oblast, and Ukrainian partisans forced Russian assaults into retreat six times during the day.
Further south, in the vicinity of Avdiivka, Ukraine’s general staff say their forces defeat a Russian advance on Pisky, which Russia says it occupied two days earlier, and Pervomaiskyi.
Dnipropetrovsk governor Velntyn Reznichenko says Russia shelled settlements far from the front overnight causing damage to electricity lines, gas pipelines, homes, shops and a school.
Ukraine says it destroyed Russian equipment and ammunition in Novopetrivka in Zaporizhia oblast, and Blagodativka and Mksymivka in Kherson oblast.
August 16
Ukraine’s general staff say their forces repulse Russian ground assaults in the vicinity of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, though fighting continues. In Kherson, Ukraine says it successfully stopped a Russian flanking manoeuvre using a reconaissance force around Osokorivka.
Russia again accuses Ukraine of firing on the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant.
Ukrainian air force spokesman Yuryi Ignat says Russia’s invasion force has about 430 aircraft at its disposal, down from 700 at the beginning of the invasion, but the number of available helicopters has gone up, from 250 to 350. Ukraine says it has destroyed 233 Russian aircraft and 196 helicopters during the war.