Ukraine recaptures town after town, despite Russian mobilisation
Major advances in the east and south show Ukraine is maintaining its counteroffensive momentum, while Russia is pulling back forces from Crimea
Russia’s mobilisation of 200,000 conscripts seems to have had no impact during the 32nd week of the war, as Ukrainian forces recaptured more territory in the east and south of the country.
On September 30, Ukrainian forces advancing from Izyum surrounded Lyman in Donetsk region and entered it the following day. The spectacular encirclement of the city and an expanse of surrounding territory trapped Russian personnel trying to flee, which seems to confirm a collapse of Russian morale.
Ukraine’s general staff said its forces discovered a convoy of civilian cars near Shchastya, containing 200 Russian soldiers from the Second Army Corps escaping Lyman. “There has been a decrease in the level of moral and psychological state of enemy personnel, leading to numerous instances of soldiers returning into captivity and abandoning their positions,” said the general staff.
The fall of Lyman came on the very day Russia fielded fresh troops from its September 21 compulsory mobilisation. Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai said the first troops had arrived to replenish Russia’s First Tank Army. In an address to the Ukrainian people three days later, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said these Russian reinforcements were already being killed.
“Among the dead occupiers we can already see those who were taken just a week or two ago. People were not trained for combat, they have no experience to fight in such a war. But the Russian command just needs some people - any kind - to replace the dead. And when these new ones die, more people will be sent. This is how Russia fights. That's how it will lose as well,” Zelenskyy said.
Lyman was considered a major logistics hub for Russian forces. In Ukrainian hands, it could speed up counterattacks in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces and seems to have rejuvenated partisan action behind enemy lines. Haidai said partisans had entrenched themselves in the psychiatric hospital at Svatovo, now just a few kilometres from advancing Ukrainian troops, which may become the next major area of contention on the eastern front.
The militia of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic said it had repulsed “repeated attampts” by Ukrainian forces to break through to the oil refinery at Lysychansk, the last city to fall to Russian forces in that region on July 3. The militia also reported “fierce battles” for neighbouring Kreminna.
Despite this, Russian forces in the east doggedly stuck to an advance towards Bakhmut, a transport node in Donetsk they have been trying to capture for weeks.
Three days after the fall of Lyman, Ukraine’s southern forces scored a major victory, too, advancing 30km down the west bank of the Dnipro river - their most rapid advance of the war. In a single attack, they destroyed 31 Russian tanks, said Ukraine’s southern command. The following day Ukrainian marines recaptured Davydiv Brid in Kherson region, and a separate advance into Kherson from the west retook the town of Myrolyubivka. Russian military correspondent Alexander Sladkov told Rossya1 television station that 17 towns had returned to Ukrainian control.
Should it continue, Ukraine’s recapture of the west bank of the Dnipro river could leave an estimated 25,000 Russian soldiers stranded. "The fact we have broken through the front means that ... the Russian army has already lost the ability to attack, and today or tomorrow it could lose the ability to defend," Oleh Zhdanov, a military analyst based in Kyiv told Reuters.
Ukrainian forces were active across the Kherson front during the week. On October 3, Tass reported explosions in Kherson city, possibly due to the use of anti-air weapons, and air raid sirens at Nova Kakhova. Kherson occupation deputy administrator Kirill Stremousov said a Ukrainian reconnaissance force was intercepted as photographed Russian formations along the Dnipro river, and a Chechen official reported several Ukrainian counterattacks on the Kherson front.
Ukraine has proven its ability to strike deep into Russian-held territory with rocket artillery and drones. Ukraine’s deputy chief of military intelligence Vadym Skibitskiy told the news website Krym.Realia that Russia had redeployed Black Sea Fleet service personnel from the Sevastopol naval base in Crimea to Novorossiysk to avoid casualties, after a series of explosions. Earlier this year, Russia was reported to have moved fighter aircraft and submarines off the peninsula. “We do not rule out that some warships and supply ships will be moved from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk as well, to avoid getting hit,” Skibitskyi said.
Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, has acted as a staging area for Russian personnel and equipment, supporting the invasion of Kherson and Zaporizhia in the early days of the war. Ukraine has made clear it wants the peninsula back. Ukraine has made devastating use of 16 US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) in its September counteroffensives. On October 1, a lend-lease facility that speeds up the supply of US weapons came into force, and in two separate announcements, the US department of defence said it is sending Ukraine 22 new HIMARS rocket launchers and ammunition.
The head of Ukrainian intelligence services predicted that after a winter lull, Ukrainian forces would likely enter Crimea by the end of spring 2023. Maj.-Gen. Kyrylo Budanov said Russia’s mobilisation would not present a challenge. "There is no need to be afraid of mobilisation. In fact, it is a gift to us. This will only speed up the process, which is already impossible to stop,” said Budanov in an interview with television channel 1+1.
A rift with Kadyrov
The fall of Lyman revealed a rift between Russian regular forces and Chechen leader and militia commander Ramzan Kadyrov, who openly criticised the Russian commander in the east, Col. Alexander Lapin.
“The colonel-general posted mobilized fighters from the LPR and other units at all the frontiers of the Limansky direction, but did not provide them with the necessary communication, interaction and ammunition delivery,” Kadyrov wrote on Telegram. “Two weeks ago, my dear BROTHER Apty Alaudinov told me personally that our fighters could become an easy target. In turn, I notified Valery Gerasimov, head of the General Directorate of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, about the danger. But the general assured me that he does not doubt Lapin's leadership talent and does not think that a retreat is possible in Krasny Liman and its surroundings… If it were up to me, I would demote Lapin to a private… and send him to the front lines to wash away his shame in blood.”
Kadyrov is a valued Kremlin ally and his troops, along with those of the private Wagner Group militia, have been responsible for many of Russia’s successes in Ukraine. Putin on October 5 rushed to appease him, phoning him to tell him he was promoted to Colonel-General.
The rift with Kadyrov may have begun as early as April, when reports surfaced that his militiamen had killed three Russian soldiers who were ready to surrender. It became more open in July, when Russian president Vladimir Putin demanded a battalion from each of Russia’s regions through voluntary conscription. Kadyrov, whose Chechen republic has already supplied three battalions to the fight in Ukraine, said he would contribute no more. When Putin declared a compulsory mobilisation on September 21, mothers and wives in Caucasian republics neighbouring Chechnya took to the streets to confront Russian conscription teams.
Annexation and nuclear threats
Kadyrov upstaged the Kremlin after Lyman, saying Russia should contemplate the use of low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Nationalist Russian lawmaker Leonid Slutsky alluded to nuclear weapons as well, saying the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, self-proclaimed in 2014, should be enshrined in the Russian constitution as Russian territory, to ensure that “all possible means” for their defence could be brought to bear.
This had probably been the intended implication of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s formal annexation on Sepember 30 of the four regions he partially occupies - Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said any attack on the annexed regions would be considered an attack on Russia itself. But following Ukraine’s advances, the Kremlin demurred.
On October 3 Peskov suggested the Kremlin would take a flexible stance with respect to what it considers Russian territory. "We are going to continue to consult the populations of these regions," Peskov said. "No doubt, any configuration will depend only on the will of the people who live in a particular territory."
He also watered down Kadyrov’s call to nuclear arms. “The heads of regions have the authority to express their point of view… all the same, probably, emotions should be excluded from any assessments, so we prefer to stick to very balanced, objective assessments," he said.
The United States said it saw no evidence that Russia was readying nuclear weapons for battlefield use.
"We are looking very carefully to see if Russia is actually doing anything that suggests that they are contemplating the use of nuclear weapons. To date, we've not seen them take these actions," Blinken told a news conference in Washington with his Canadian counterpart.
Ukraine’s reaction to the annexation was an application for expeditious NATO membership.
“We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine’s application for accelerated accession to NATO,” Zelenskyy said. He explained what that meant in a phone call with Danish premier Mette Frederiksen. "We need to get through this as quickly as possible without a Membership Action Plan. As it was done for Finland and Sweden," said Zelenskyy.
His justification for rapid membership is that it is in effect an allaince member already.
“We are de facto allies,” he said. “We have already proven compatibility with Alliance standards, they are real for Ukraine… We trust each other, we help each other and we protect each other. This is the Alliance. De facto. Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure.”
Zelenskyy also hardened his stance towards negotiations further, calling for a leadership change in Russia as a precondition to talks.
Excellent coverage as always. Thanks.