Ukraine prepares for a Russian onslaught in the east
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asks for weapons donations, as Russia makes advances in Izium and Mariupol
Ukaine spent the seventh week of the war asking for weapons donations, as it prepared for a renewed Russian offensive in the east of the country.
Russian forces took control of the city of Izium on April 6, and bisected Ukrainian defences in the port city of Mariupol, reaching the Sea of Azov on April 10. Between these two locations, Russia was building up its forces in a crab’s claw around the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, in what Ukraine expects will be an attempt to join its northern and southern fronts in a pincer movement to isolate Ukrainian elite units in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces.
Luhansk region governor Serhiy Gaidai posted a message on April 6 saying, “I appeal to every resident of the Luhansk region – evacuate while it is safe. While there are buses and trains, take this opportunity.”
That opportunity was clearly fraught. Russia is suspected of firing a cluster bomb into Kramatorsk train station on April 7, as an estimated 4,000 civilians waited to evacuate, killing at least 52.
"If at the beginning they exclusively ... targeted railway tracks, then now it's not only tracks, but also firing a missile containing cluster munitions which are meant for people,” said regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko. He said the missile fired was a Tochka U, which explodes midair spreading bomblets over a wide area.
Reporters later noticed that the spent missile casing has had the words “for children” written on it in Russian. Russia’s defence ministry said it does not use Tochka U missiles and had assigned no targets in Kramatorsk on the day of the attack.
In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he believes Russia has targeted civilians: “Usually, whenever any political leader of Russia is saying that they are not shooting at civilians… I think that at that moment, the population should be preparing themselves,” he said.
A war of attrition
Battles heated up in the east during the week, with Ukraine saying on April 8 it had destroyed nine tanks, seven armoured vehicles and two helicopters. Russia targeted Ukrainian air defences and aircraft, claiming it had destroyed two SU-25 fighter jets, a MiG-29 jet, a helicopter and four S-300 anti-air missile batteries throughout the week. It also completely destroyed the airport in Dnipro.
“Ukraine has suffered significant attrition over the course of the war in terms of both fighter aircraft, usable airbases and – crucially – long, medium and short ranged surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems,” says Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for airpower and technology at the Royal United Services Institute.
“As a result of these losses, although the airspace over most of Ukraine is still very dangerous for Russian aircraft, the frontline areas in the east and the south, which are close to Russian controlled airspace anyway, have seen increased Russian use of airpower against battlefield targets in recent weeks,” Bronk said.
“Nevertheless, the Russian air force still struggles to achieve particularly accurate results against battlefield targets en masse due to the limited numbers of precision guided munitions which its fast jet and helicopters can use. They can achieve accuracy with unguided bombs and rockets only by attacking down to low level where MANPADS and ground fire pose a significant threat.”
Bronk said resupply efforts by Western nations to provide Ukraine with new mobile SAM systems that they can use immediately, such as S-300 long range and SA-8 short range SAMs, will be crucial to maintaining the risk to Russian medium altitude sorties deeper into Ukraine. So will the resupply of surface-to-surface munitions.
“The deciding factors [in the battle for the east] will be whether Ukraine receives sufficient supplies of ammunition – especially artillery and anti-tank ammunition – to repel the Russian offensive in Donbas, and whether the depleted Russian units withdrawn from the northern axes can provide sufficient usable combat power in Donbas to generate a decisive local Russian advantage in the face of Ukrainian reinforcements,” he said.
Zelenskyy asked national parliaments in Ireland, Greece and Korea to approve weapons donations. In his interview with Al Jazeera, he said Putin hasn’t given up on his original plan to take all of Ukraine, despite lifting the sieges of Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy in the north. “If our forces in Donbas won’t be able to hold their positions, then the risk of a repeated offensive against Kyiv is probable,” he said.
NATO foreign ministers meeting on April 7 agreed to step up immediate supplies of weapons to Ukraine. “There was support for countries to supply new and heavier equipment to Ukraine so that they can respond to these new threats from Russia. We’ve agreed to help Ukrainian forces move from their Societ-era equipment to NATO-standard equipment on a bilateral basis,” said British foreign secretary Liz Truss.
Atrocities bring further sanctions
A string of dignitaries paraded through Kiev during the week to witness first-hand the mass killings of civilians Russian forces are believed to have carried out.
European Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen on April 8 called the killings “unthinkable”. She handed Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy a questionnaire that starts off Ukraine’s process of joining the European Union. "It will not as usual be a matter of years to form this opinion, but I think a matter of weeks," she said. Ukraine applied to join the EU on February 28, four days after a full-scale Russian invasion.
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer also stopped over in Kiev on his way to meet Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow, in a last-ditch attempt to bring hostilities to an end. He declared he had “no optimistic news” after the meeting.
British prime minister Boris Johnson also met with Zelenskyy. “What Putin has done in places like Bucha and Irpin is war crimes that have permanently polluted his reputation and the reputation of his government,” Johnson said referring to places where teams of experts are gathering evidence of apparent Russian atrocities against civilians.
Western retribution for these atrocities has been swift. The UN General Assembly voted to suspend Russia from the organisation’s Human Rights Council, which is the world’s top human rights body.
As a permanent Security Council member Russia has managed to block two resolutions reprimanding it for its invasion of Ukraine, but it has suffered three votes condemning it in the General Assembly, including the one on April 7.
US president Joe Biden issued an executive order on April 6 prohibiting US persons from investing in Russia, financing activities there by third country nationals or exporting services to Russia.
Two days later the European Union banned Russian coal imports, worth 8bn euros a year, as well as other Russian imports. It barred Russian ships from entering EU ports, and Russian-registered trucks from EU roads.
The EU’s Freeze and Seize task force, formed to co-ordinate implementation of Russian sanctions among member states, says 29.5bn euros’ worth ($32bn) of Russian assets have been seized so far, and 196bn euros’s worth ($212bn) of transactions blocked.
NATO expansion?
Sweden and Finland seem to be moving closer to NATO membership as a result of the war in Ukraine. Opinion polls show that pro-NATO sentiment has doubled in both countries.
“I expect that all allies will welcome them,” NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said. “We know that they can easily join this alliance if they decide to apply.” A March poll for Finnish broadcaster YLE showed that more than half of Finns would support the move for the first time in the country’s history. More recent polls suggest the pro-NATO vote is 68%.
Russia has warned both countries against NATO membership.
Timeline: Week seven of Russia’s war in Ukraine
April 6-12
April 6
Ukrainian authorities advise residents of the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions to evacuate “while it is safe”, expecting a strong offensive there aimed at completing Russia’s conquest of the two regions.
The government is trying to evacuate people along 11 humanitarian corridors. These are not deemed entirely safe.
Ukrainian authorities say the eastern town of Izium is completely under Russian control.
US president Joe Biden issues an executive order punishing Russia with new US sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine. US persons are prohibited from investing in Russia, financing activities there by third country nationals or exporting services to Russia. The sanctions also target Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two daughters. US officials say they believe they are holding much of Putin’s personal wealth.
US treasury secretary Janet Yellen says the G20 – the word’s 20 largest economies – should expel Russia, and that the US will boycott certain G20 meetings if Russian officials show up.
The European Commission says it has begun a 540mn euro strategic stockpile of medicines and equipment to combat chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats. The Commission mentions the possibility of radioactive substances leaks and terrorist attacks, but not a possible attack by Russia.
Hungary becomes the first European Union member to agree to purchase Russian gas in roubles, as decreed by Russian president Vladimir Putin on March 31.
NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg says the alliance would welcome Sweden and Finland if they decided to apply for membership.
April 7
Ukrainian authorities say Russia fired a cluster munition into a railway station packed with thousands of evacuees, killing at least 52. The attack takes place in the city of Kramatorsk in the eastern Donetsk region.
Addressing Greek parliament virtually, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls for tougher European sanctions against Russia.
Some NATO members say they will step up deliveries of weapons to Ukraine, during a foreign ministers’ council in Brussels. Ukrainian foreign minister tells the gathering that Ukraine needed the extra weapons in “days, not weeks”.
The UN General Assembly votes to suspend Russia from the organisation’s Human Rights Council. Ninety-three nations vote in favour, 24 vote against, and 58 abstain.
April 8
Ukraine says it has repelled Russian attacks in the east, destroying nine tanks, seven armoured vehicles and two helicopters.
Forensic experts start exhuming bodies in mass graves in the town of Bucha, northwest of Kiev. Visiting the site, European Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen calls the killings of civilians “unthinkable”. In Kiev, she hands Zelenskyy a questionnaire starting off the beginning of Ukraine’s EU membership application process.
The European Union bans imports of Russian coal in reaction to Russia’s apparent slaughter of civilians in Bucha, Ukraine. The ban, which begins in August, will deprive Russia of 8bn euros a year. As part of this fifth round of sanctions, the EU also bans imports of Russian lumber, cement, seafood and fertilisers. It bans Russian-flagged ships from its ports and Russian-registered transport vehicles from its roads (the Russian customs service says some of its vehicles are barred from entering EU territory on the same day).
The EU also bans the export to Russia of jet fuel and sensitive technologies and software. Four Russian banks already ousted from the Swift interbank transaction system have their assets frozen. 217 Russian oligarchs are added to a list of sanctioned individuals, bringing the total to 1,091. Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen says the EU is looking into blocking imports of Russian oil next.
The Kremlin says its invasion of Ukraine could end “in the foreseeable future”.
April 9
British prime minister Boris Johnson makes a surprise visit to Kiev, promising Zelenskyy anti-ship missiles and armoured vehicles. “Ukraine can never be bullied again, never will be blackmailed again, never will be threatened in the same way again,” Johnson said.
Zelenskyy also meets with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer in Kiev, and warns that a difficult battle lies ahead. “This will be a hard battle, we believe in this fight and our victory. We are ready to simultaneously fight and look for diplomatic ways to put an end to this war,” Zelenskyy says.
A fundraiser organised by Canada and the EU raises 10.1bn euros ($11bn) for displaced Ukrainians and refugees.
April 10
Russian missiles strike the airport of the city of Dnipro, utterly destroying it, the regional governor says.
Local officials say they have discovered a new mass grave in Buzova, a town 30km west of Kiev, since Russian forces left.
The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank, says Russian forces bisected Mariupol, splitting its Ukrainian defenders into two groups, in the Azovstal steel plant in the city’s east, and in the main port in the southwest.
The World Bank says the economies of Europe and Central Asia will contract by 4.1% this year due to the war in Ukraine, a recession twice as deep as that caused by Covid-19 in 2020. Ukraine’s economy will shrink by almost half – 45% - and Russia’s economy will contract by 11.2%, the Bank says. Ukraine is worst affected because half its businesses are closed and about half its exports are blocked off from the Black Sea. The World Bank has provided Ukraine with $923 in loans and grants, and is preparing a further aid package of $2bn.
April 11
Zelenskyy tells Al Jazeera that Ukrainian forces entrenched in the port areas of Mariupol will make a last stand for the city, even though Russian forces have now taken the centre.
“Capturing the city would mean our forces surrendering the weapons. But today… our soldiers are fighting until the very end, and they’re not willing to surrender,” Zelenskyy says in an exclusive interview to the network.
Ukraine’s defence ministry says Russia has completed its buildup of forces in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, of which Mariupol is a part.
"We forecast that active combat will begin in these areas in the nearest time," defence ministry spokesman Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said, adding that Ukraine's army was ready to face the renewed assault.
Russia says its airstrikes have destroyed four S-300 anti-air missile launch vehicles stationed on the outskirts of the city of Dnipro.
Unnamed officials tell The Times that Finland and plan to join the NATO alliance as early as June, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two countries were granted “enhanced information exchange” rights on February 25, a day after Russia launched a full scale war in Ukraine.
Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats say they are reconsidering their long-held position in favour of neutrality. Polls show that support for NATO membership has doubled in both countries, to 50% in Sweden, and to about 68% in Finland.
Zelenskyy asks South Korea for weapons, in his latest in a string of appeals to national parliaments.
Austrian chancellor Karl Nehammer says he has “no optimistic information to bring you” after meeting with Putin in Moscow. “The conversation with president Putin was very direct, open and tough,” Nehammer said. He said he raised the issue of war crimes against civilians in Bucha and elsewhere.
April 12
Ukraine’s security services say they have captured Putin ally Victor Medvedchuk, who leads the Opposition Platform – For Life party. “Pro-Russian traitors and agents of the Russian intelligence services, remember - your crimes have no statute of limitations," Ukraine's security service posts on Facebook alongside a photo of Medvedchuk in handcuffs.
Putin says Russia “had no other choice” but to launch what he calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, to protect the rights of the Russian minority there and to ensure its own security.