Ukraine made further gains as mutinous Russian troops marched on Moscow
Russian president Vladimir Putin has been weakened by a mutiny by the Wagner Group his own troops did little to resist
Ukraine continued to probe Russian defences for weaknesses and reclaim occupied territory in the 70th week of the war, while Russian president Vladimir Putin was weakened by a major mutiny among his own forces.
Ukrainian deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar said Ukraine’s conteroffensive had liberated 130 square kilometres by June 26, a gain of 17 square kilometres compared to a week earlier.
Ukraine had also launched new offensives north and south of Bakhmut, Maliar said, in Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Yahidne, Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka, reinforcing a flanking action that began in mid-May. Ukrainian troops advanced 1-2km along these new axes, she said.
Ukraine’s southern forces continued to put pressure on Russian defences in front of the port cities of Melitopol and Berdyansk. “The Russian occupation forces are putting up strong resistance, while suffering significant losses in personnel, weapons and equipment. The enemy's casualties over the past week are 8 times more than ours,” Maliar said.
On June 23, Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin circulated a video purpoertedly showing a missile strike against his private military company.
“According to eyewitnesses, the strike was delivered from the rear, that is, it was delivered by the military of the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense,” he wrote on Telegram.
Prigozhin said his 25,000 men under arms would “march for justice” to “stop the evil brought by the Russian military leadership,” and to forcibly remove Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of staff Valery Gerasimiov from office. He vowed his soldiers would then return to the front lines in Ukraine.
Why did he do it?
Prigozhin has frequently criticised the Russian military leadership for incompetence that has led to the deaths of tens of thousands of soldiers. He has put himself in competition with Shoigu and Gerasimov by claiming credit for the capture of Severdonetsk, Lysychansk and Bakhmut in Ukraine’s east, elevating Wagner’s reputation.
After the occupation of Bakhmut in May, Russia’s defence ministry cycled Wagner mercenaries out and replaced them with regular marines and paratroopers. On June 10, Shoigu announced that all volunteer formations must sign military contracts with the Russian defence ministry by July 1. Prigozhin said that would not happen.
“He was pushed to act because the defence ministry was trying to absorb Wagner, and he knew that once they grabbed Wagner he had nothing - and God knows what would happen to him afterwards,” Col. Seth Krummrich, vice-president at Global Guardian, a security consultancy, told Al Jazeera.
How did the mutiny unfold?
Following their withdrawal from Bakhmut, Wagner forces either redeployed to Krasnodar in Russia, or remained encamped behind the front lines in Ukraine’s eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Unengaged in the war, they were free to attack Russia itself.
Well before 8am on June 24, footage showed Prigozhin casually walking through the regional military headquarters of Rostov-on-Don, which his men ahd occupied. These are not only the headquarters for the 58th Combined Arms Army currently engaged in Ukraine, but also the command centre for all Russian forces in Ukraine.
“They were able to walk in there,” Krummrich said. “That told me the Russian headquarters there was taken completely by susprise… or they’re realising what’s happening in Ukraine, they’re seeing the losses and the lies in Moscow, so there was an emotional support level,” he said.
By 10:30am Moscow time, geolocated footage showed Wagner forces crossing the administrative border of Voronezh region, where Russian troops surrendered to them. Wagner quickly seized the city of Voronezh with relatively little resistance.
By early afternoon Wagner had advanced past Lipetsk and was filmed driving on the M4 highway to Moscow with T-90 tanks and BMP-2 armoured personnel carreirs. Bulldozer crews began to dig up a trench across the M4 to stop them. The Kremlin mobilised Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) special police (OMON) and special rapid response (SOBR) troops to barricade the capital in what was increasingly looking like a coup attempt that could have led to civil war. By 6pm Wagner troops were filmed in northern Lipetsk region, 330km from Moscow.
In a matter of hours, Wagner had covered half the distance from the Ukrainian border to Moscow.
“Such fast moving and impactful developments make it almost certain… that Wagner had a plan for a military uprising already well worked out, had stockpiled equipment, and had analysed the weak points in the Russian military and state that it could exploit,” wrote Phillips Obrien, professor of strategy at St. Andrews University, in a Substack post.
Even the Russian air force was unable to stop the advancing columns because they carried Pantsir and manually portable air defence systems. “They had integrated air defence systems that are mobile, so they were able to protect their convoy and protevct their movement. Any sort of aviation that came in they could strike it right away,” said Krummrich.
“Wagner forces may have shot down up to three Mi-8 MTPR electronic warfare helicopters, one Mi-8 helicopter, one Ka-52 helicopter, one Mi-35 helicopter, one Mi-28 helicopter, and one An-26/Il-28 transport aircraft, resulting in the deaths of at least 13 pilots and airmen - and one of the single deadliest days for the Russian air force of the war in Ukraine to date,” assessed the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
The lack of resistance to Wagner was also remarkable. “Rosgvardia’s founding mission is to protect internal threats to the security of the Russian government such as an advance on Moscow, and it is notable that Rosgvardia failed to engage even as Wagner captured critical military assets in Rostov-on-Don and destroyed Russian military aircraft,” said the ISW.
Why did the mutiny end?
Putin had declared Prigozhin a traitor on June 24, and described his mutiny as “a betrayal of our people… a knife in the back of our country.”
“Inflated ambitions and personal interests have led to treason,” Putin said. “Those who staged the mutiny and took up arms against their comrades – they have betrayed Russia and will be brought to account.”
Yet by the end of the day Prigozhin announced a truce brokered by Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko that gave him immunity in Belarus. He claimed his decision to accept was driven by a desire to avoid further bloodshed and civil war.
“[Prigozhin] did not see the people rising up. He has 25,000 soldiers. That’s maybe 10,000 footsoldiers. The rest are logistics. You can maybe take one neighbourhood in Moscow with that… there’s no chance of him taking it militarily. What he needed was a spark to set off a coup where the people rose up, but the people are clearly not at that point,” said Krummrich. “I think he struck too early.”
Independent Russian news service Verstka reported that a 24,000 square kilometre training base for Wagner was already under construction at Asipovichy in Belarus, 200km from the Ukrainian border. But it was unlikely that Putin would allow Prigozhin to live, said Krummrich.
“I think he’s a dead man walking,” Krummrich said. “If you’re Putin, you have to kill him, you have to, because the next batch of oligarchs who decide to break off are going to be much more savvy, much more sophisticated, and they’re going to win.”
In a second address to the Russian people on June 26, Putin left the door open for Wagner mercenaries to sign up with the armed forces, a sign of how greatly in need he is for trained and experienced personnel.
“Today you have the opportunity to continue your service to Russia by signing a contract with the defence ministry or other law enforcement or security agency, or return home. Those who want to are free to go to Belarus. I will keep my promise,” Putin said.
What will the mutiny’s effects be?
Many observers noted that despite the failure of the mutiny, it has left Putin looking weak.
“There’s still other players in the game of thrones in Moscow that are waiting and watching,” said Krummrich. “They see the weakness. Blood’s in the water, and here come the sharks… his stiuation has become much more dangerous.”
“He let the Shoigu-Progozhin argument fester without dealing with it decisively,” wrote Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London.
“As the confrontation reached a critical stage, the masses were not running out onto the streets to support [Putin]… Those urging Prigozhin to back off did so in regretful tones… without going out of their way to praise Putin as a glorious and irreplaceable war leader, whose judgement bordered on the infallible and whose bravery moved all those who witnessed it. Putin will be aware that at this vital moment when his position was under the greatest threat, many were watching to see what happened next.”