Ukraine delays Russia in the east, strikes back in the north and south
Ukraine is pursuing a resilient and resourceful defence and counter-offensive, say military analysts, but Russia is also moving swiftly to assimilate occupied regions
Ukrainian armed forces kept the spearhead of Russian forces engaged in the eastern city of Severdonetsk, while launching successful counterattacks in the north and south during the fifteenth week of the war.
The southern counteroffensive began on May 28, and by June 2 Kherson Oblast Military Administration Head Hennadiy Lahuta reported that Ukrainian forces had liberated 20 villages. In some areas Ukrainian forces had managed to push the Russian lines of defence back about 25km. For example, whereas the Russians were almost on the outskirts of Mykolaiv, they are now reportedly halfway between Mykolaiv and the city of Kherson. Increased Russian attacks have failed to win these areas back (see detailed Timeline).
Ukraine’s navy also says its use of anti-ship missiles has forced Russian ships to a distance of 100km from land, and prompted Russia to place Bal and Bastion anti-ship missile batteries on Crimea. Ukraine says it has sunk 13 Russian ships and boats of various types. “We have deprived the Russian Black Sea Fleet of complete control over the northwest part of the Black Sea, which has turned into the ‘gray zone’,” the navy announced.
Russian military sources on June 5 reported that Ukraine had launched a new counteroffensive in the northern Kharkiv region. This is where Ukraine successfully pushed Russian forces back to within a few kilometres of the Russian border in May, and secured the city of Kharkiv.
The heart of the struggle was the city of Severdonetsk, where Ukrainian and Russian forces appear to have gone back and forth. Russian defence minister Sergey Shoigu claims his forces have now captured the entire residential part of the city, and continue to fight for the industrial sector.
Russia launched the battle for Severdonetsk on May 25. Given that the city is only about 25 streets deep from east to west, and Russia has committed the flower of its forces there - 10,000 men backed by relentless artillery, mortars and air power - Ukrainian forces appear to have held out admirably. Despite Russia’s tenfold superiority in artillery there, as reported by the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence Kiril Budanov, Russia has failed to surround Severdonetsk, to take neighbouring Lysychansk or to ford the Siverski Donets river, which lies between them.
Ukraine has proven the more versatile and resilient combatant, says the Institue for the Study of War. “The Russian military has concentrated all of its available resources on this single battle to make only modest gains. The Ukrainian military contrarily retains the flexibility and confidence to not only conduct localized counterattacks elsewhere in Ukraine (such as north of Kherson) but conduct effective counterattacks into the teeth of Russian assaults in Severodonetsk.”
Severdonetsk does not have strategic but symbolic value, say analysts, as its occupation would allow Russia to claim it has taken Ukraine’s esternmost Luhansk province.
“Russia’s drive in Luhansk is the desperate gamble of a dictator staking the last of the offensive combat power he can scrape together in hopes of breaking his enemies’ will to continue the fight,” wrote Frederick W Kagan, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank. “And let him claim that he’s taken all of Luhansk Oblast… There are no Russian large reserves coming behind this force to carry its successes forward.”
Realities of Russian occupation
What does Russia intend to do with Luhansk and Donetsk if it does conquer them? The realities in Kherson Oblast, which fell on March 2, provide clues.
First, Russian forces seek to consolidate their occupation through intimidation. Al Jazeera spoke with a Kherson schoolteacher who witnessed the occupation.
“In the early days of the Russian occupation… people started going out with Ukrainian flags protesting that Kherson belongs to Ukraine. In the beginning [the Russians] didn’t bother them. After about two weeks they started to teargas them and to frighten them,” says Marina, who fled to Odesa in late April and spoke on condition of anonymity to protect family members still in Kherson.
“They might stop you on the street to check your phone. They check your music and photos. If you listen to Ukrainian music, it’s a problem. They check your chats on Viber, Facebook and so on. They don’t want to see you giving out information about what the Russians are doing,” she said.
Many Ukrainians have disappeared following such checks, says Ukraine’s ombudsman, Lyudmila Denisova. “From the first days of the occupation, messages with photos and calls for help in finding missing parents, wives, children, friends began to appear massively on social networks,” she posted. There is concern that some abductees will be drafted into the Russian army, as is reportedly happening in Crimea.
“They’re terrorising people, telling them if the Ukrainians counterattack no one will be left alive,” says Pantelis Boubouras, who owns a construction business in Odesa and is Greece’s honorary consul in Kherson. “They’re doing this to lower Ukrainian morale, but they will actually do it. There are Chechens, there are drug abusers, and there are heavy drinkers among the Russians… Day by day the Russian army’s behaviour is growing worse. I am a Russophile, but I believe they will kill civilians,” he told Al Jazeera.
Russian occupiers in Kherson have shown signs of increasing nervousness. Military and civil leaders are reported to be moving with heavy security details. Ukraine’s southern operational command says Russian troops now have orders to shoot civilians on sight and destroy vehicles at checkpoints on suspicion that they are part of a resistance to the Russian occupation.
“We believe the Russians are preparing a stronger attack on Mykolaiv, and if they manage that they’ll attack Odesa and try to take the whole coastline,” says Boubouras. “We’ve seen that there are Russian checkpoints everywhere [in Kherson]. They’re trying to make sure that Ukrainian fighters don’t infiltrate the local population and attack them from the rear when they launch their offensive.”
That is the view of the Russian strategy outlined by Oleksiy Gromov, deputy commander of the main operations department of the Ukrainian general staff: to conquer the entire Ukrainian littoral, intercept foreign military aid and destroy Ukraine’s economic infrastructure.
Meanwhile Russia appears to be preparing to assimilate and annex Kherson. Ukraine’s military intelligence says Russia is switching to the Russian school curriculum there and is handing out Russian SIM cards to convert Ukrainian mobile phones to the Russian network. Zaporizhia has been converted to Moscow time and Russian radio stations are being set up. As of May 25, Russian passports were being issued in replacement of Ukrainian ones in Kherson.
Hanna Malyar, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, says Russia is beginning to supplant business owners. “The occupiers are starting their agricultural business in the territories of the south... We have information that representatives of the Caucasus region are being relocated to the Kherson region for this purpose.”
Reported confiscations of business properties appear to be serving this purpose. “A wheat merchant I know had $1.5mn of wheat. They took it,” says Bouburas. “Another person was offered 30% of his property. He complained so they took all of it.”
Denisova reported that unclaimed real estate in Kherson is being confiscated. Owners are asked to submit deeds of title. The implication is that those who’ve fled will forfeit their property. She also reported that vehicles belonging to people who were killed or have fled were being rounded up for auction.
Russia embarked on a census of Kherson in mid-May. This month, residents were being polled through their cell phones, Ukraine’s military intelligence says. They received questions including, “How do you feel about the special military operation in Ukraine? How do you feel about Vladimir Putin?” suggesting that Russian authorities are building a political profile of the population.
Another question suggests the options being considered by Russian authorities: “In your opinion, should Kherson be a part of the Russian Federation or follow the path of the LPR / DPR, or become a part of the Republic of Crimea?”
The LPR and DPR, the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, are breakaway regions of Ukraine. Russia recognised them as independent states in February 2014, and Russia-backed separatists have been at war with the government of Ukraine since May that year, when they held referenda to declare self-rule. Crimea declared itself an independent Republic in March 2014 and was immediately absorbed by Russia. Ukraine’s defence intelligence suspects the polling of Kherson residents may be part of preparations for a self-rule referendum there.
Most of the international community recognises Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea as part of Ukraine, but that hasn’t stopped Russia. “The [Russians] installed a pro-Russian mayor [in Kherson], who is applying pressure to hold a referendum,” says Boubouras. “It is going to happen with a gun to people’s head, as in Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea.”
Timeline: Week 15 of Russia’s war in Ukraine
June 2
Kherson Oblast military administration head Hennadiy Lahuta reports that Ukrainian forces liberated 20 unnamed villages. This seemingly confirms the reports of earlier days that a Ukrainian counteroffensive has pushed Russian occupying forces east of the Inhulets river.
Ukraine’s southern operational command says heavy fighting is raging near Mykolaiv as Russian forces attempt to break through defences there. Ukraine is reportedly preparing a counteroffensive from this direction. Elsewhere in the region, Russia is increasing shelling and helicopter-launched rocket attacks. The Russian military Telegram channel Rybar says Ukrainian forces are trying to reach the Russian-held towns of Snihurivka and Kryvyi Rih.
Ukraine’s defence ministry says Russian forces in the Donbas unsuccessfully attempt to cross the Siversky Donets river, surrounding the twin cities of Lysychansk and Severdonetsk, where the fiercest fighting rages. Elsewhere in the Donbas, the ministry says Russia has concentrated 20 battalion tactical groups (of about 300-500 men each) to attack Slovyansk, which seems to be the focal point of several Russian lines of attack.
June 3
In Severdonetsk, Ukraine reports that Russians are making incremental advances through the city. However, Luhansk region governor Serhiy Haidai says Ukrainian defenders also took back several blocks of the city that had been overrun. Ukrainian and Russian sources later confrm that Ukrainian defenders took back 20% of the city in a counterattack that inflicted heavy losses on Chechen units. Russian forces continue to fail to surround Severdonetsk from the south.
Russian forces appear to be attempting an assault on Sviatohirst in east Ukraine from both Izyum and Lyman, without success. Sviatohirst is a waystation on the road to Slovyansk, in the heart of Donetsk region, of which Russia has conquered half. Russian forces also fire missiles and conduct airstrikes against Slovyansk.
Russian forces also fail to take new territory north of their bridgehead in Popasna.
Russian forces unsuccessfully attempt to roll back a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kherson region.
June 4
Ukrainians defend Sverdonetsk fiercely, belying predictions that the city will be in Russian hands in a matter of days. Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai believes the Ukrainian forces there are well-enough supplied to hold their positions and rebuff Russian offensives. This is a change from the tactical withdrawal the Ukrainian forces were conducting until just days earlier.
Russian sources report that foreign volunteers from Georgia, France and Moldova are also involved in the defence of the city. The Russian defence ministry also says these fighters are on the decline. “The total number of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine has now been almost halved from 6,600 to 3,500… Most of the mercenaries are destroyed in the war zone due to their low level of training and lack of real combat experience,” said a spokesman for the ministry on June 2.
Ukraine says M109A3 howitzers provided by Norway are in use at the front, without specifying where.
Ukraine says its southern defences shoot down four missiles fired from across the Black Sea.
June 5
Ukrainian defenders of Severdonetsk have managed to confine Russian invaders to the eastern half of the city, down from the 70% they occupied two days earlier, say Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Haidai and Severdonetsk mayor Alexander Stryuk. The defence mounted by Ukraine is a remarkable achievement considering the small size of the city, which is only about 25 streets deep from east to west.
Haidai and Stryuk say the Russians are focusing all their frontline troops and reserves on the city, and if they conquer it are planning to march on neighbouring Lysychansk, completing their conquest of the Luhansk oblast. It is thought that they would then take control of the highway to Bakhmut in Donetsk oblast.
Russian forces continue to make unsuccessful sorties from Izyum towards Bakhmut. They are a little more successful launching attacks from Lyman towards Svyatohirsk.
Russian military sources say Ukraine has launched a new counteroffensive in the northern Kharkiv region. This is where Ukraine successfully pushed Russian forces back to within a few kilometres of the Russian border in May, and secured the city of Kharkiv.
Russian forces are reported to have mined the east bank of the Inhulets river in the Kherson region, where Ukrainian counterattacks continue.
June 6
Ukraine says Russian forces shell 20 settlements along the entire line of contact in east Ukraine, using tanks, mortars, barrel bombs, missiles and aistrikes. Ukrainian officials produce conflicting ccounts of the battle for Severdonetsk. It is unclear if Russian forces are retreating or advancing through the city. Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai issues a late report saying Ukrainian forces were retreating and fighting is concentrated at the industrial zone of the Azot plant.
Russia continues to shore up its defences in Crimea with S-300 anti-air missile batteries.
Britain announces it will send M270 multiple launch rocket systems with 80km range to Ukraine. It does not specify how many, or when they will get there, but says the move is in co-ordination with US president Joe Biden’s decision to send High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers. Ukrainian personnel are to receive training on the systems in the UK.
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov is prevented from visiting Serbia when its neighbours Bulgaria, Montenegro and North Macedonia close their airspace to his aircraft. Bulgaria and Hungary, to the north of Serbia, are implementing an EU ban on Russian air traffic. North Macedonia and Montenegro are NATO members.
June 7
Russian defence minister Sergey Shoigu claims his forces have captured the entire residential part of Severdonetsk, and continue to fight for the industrial sector.
Russian forces attempt to advance from Izyum to Slovyansk.
Ukraine estimates 31,360 Russian soldiers have been killed during Vladimir Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.