Ukraine brushes off Putin’s blitz and prepares to retake Kherson
Ukrainians’ support for the war is undiminished by an air campaign against civilian infrastructure, while Russia’s war woes put it on the defensive
The Russian army’s weaknesses became clearer in the 35th week of the war in Ukraine as it became increasingly reliant on Iran for hardware, Ukrainian civilians brushed off drone attacks and Ukrainian forces took more territory in the south and east.
It was also a week in which Russian privateers upon which the Kremlin increasingly relies criticised its handling of the war.
Yet it was also a week in which France’s president and US lawmakers appeared to send mixed signals about their resolve to continue to support Ukraine win a clear military victory.
Ukrainian successes
Russian forces pummelled Bakhmut in the east throughout the week, without breaking Ukraine’s defences.
In northern Luhansk region, Ukrainian forces reportedly captured a highway linking Kreminna to Svatove, two towns unlocking the way to Starobilsk, a major logistics centre.
Russian efforts to retake the offensive in Kharkiv, where they recently lost more than 8,000 square kilometres, were ineffective. Ukrainian forces have now retaken 544 settlements in the region, with just 32 remaining under occupation.
It was in the southern region of Kherson, where Russian forces have reportedly amassed 45 battalion tactical groups, that the next major - and possibly pivotal - action is expected to be fought. Russian forces mined crossings and bridges across the Dnipro river in expectation of a Ukrainian counterattack.
“Engineering and sapper units of the Russian occupying forces mine the [east bank of the Dnipro river], leaving small passages for a potential retreat of their troops from the right bank,” said Ukraine’s general staff.
The staff said Russia had sent 2,000 newly mobilised personnel to supervise the evacuation of doctors, teachers and bankers from western Kherson.
Russian news agency Tass reported that Russian forces were preparing Kherson city for street battles. Russian authorities were evacuating doctors, teachers and bankers from the wider area.
“All civilians of Kherson must immediately leave the city… all departments and ministries of civil administration must cross today to the left bank of the Dnieper," the city’s occupation administration said in a message on the Telegram channel on October 22.
The head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, told Ukrainian Pravda he believes Kherson city will probably be captured by the end of the year.
An August 29 counteroffensive has already recaptured more than 500 sq. km. of the region, and Russian preparations now seem focused on defence and flight.
Ukraine’s military intelligence reported that Russia was mining the locks and engine rooms of the Kakhovska hydro-electric dam on the Dnipro river. The Institute for the Study of War said Russian forces would likely blow the dam to cover their retreat. Budanov said partially blowing the dam would flood western Kherson and delay a Ukrainian advance by two weeks, mainly because the dam will cease to act as a bridge and transport artery.
Russian shortages
Russia has been running out of missiles and ammunition, both Western and Ukrainian sources say.
“Terror with the use of Shahed [drones] may be around for a long time,” said Budanov, because Russia had ordered 1,700 of them – though they have not all been built.
“But with the use of missiles - no, because the reserves are almost exhausted. About 13% [of stocks] remain for Iskanders, about 43% for Kalibr-PL, Kalibr-NK missiles, and about 45% for Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles. It is generally very dangerous to fall below 30%, because [that is] the intact reserve,” he said.
Ukraine said that in addition to drones, Iran was thinking of supplying Russia with Fatteh-110 and Zulfighar missiles, which approximate the Iskander missile. The procurement would be in the dozens of missiles.
The New York Times reported that Russia had moved S-300s from Syria to Ukraine, suggesting a shortage of even this munition thought to be in ample supply.
Criticism from within
Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has been criticising Russia’s handling of the war in conversations with Russian president Vladimir Putin, the Washington Post revealed. The Russian armed forces have poorly supplied the Wagner Group with weapons and money, despite relying on it increasingly, easpecially in the east.
Ukraine’s military intelligence said some 8,000 Wagner mercenaries were active on Ukrainian soil, with the majority recruited from among prisoners.
Terror from the air
Unable to win or hold territory, Russia continued to pound Ukraine’s infrastructure from the air, mainly using Iranian Shahed-136 drones, which Iran officially denies supplying.
Budanov said the strikes were exclusively against civilian infrastructure. Russian lawmaker Andrey Gurulyov explained the strategy on Russian television.
“The absence of electricity means the absence of water, the absence of refrigerators, the absence of sewers. One week after all electricity is cut off, the city of Kyiv will be swimming in sh*t. There will be a clear threat of an epidemic,” Gurulyov said.
“We need to knock out the control centres. We’re in the digital age. Data centres with servers control the railways and Ukraine’s energy supply systems as well as banking systems and a mint that prints the money,” Gurulyov said, predicting a “flood of refugees towards Western borders.”
But this aerial campaign is not going according to plan.
After the initial shock of losing power and urban water pumping facilities targeted by drone attacks, Ukrainians were rallying. Ukraine said it had restored 253 out of 580 energy infrastructure facilities damaged by drones and missiles.
An October 24 poll revealed an undiminished will to war among Ukrainians, 86 percent of whom told the Kyiv Internation Institute of Sociology they wanted to continue fighting despite attacks on civilians. Even among Russian speakers, 66% voted for a continuation of the war. Overall, only 10% of Ukrainians said negotiations should begin to stop the bombing of cities.
In addition, Ukraine’s air defences were meeting with success in diminishing the threat. Budanov estimated that air defences had shot down two thirds of the 330 Shahed-136 drones deployed by October 22.
The Ukrainian general staff’s figures for that day were typical of Ukraine’s success rate. Russia fired 40 missiles and 16 Shahed-136 drones. Ukraine shot down 20 of the missiles and 11 of the UAVs.
Ukraine’s air force spokesman Yuri Ignat said the German-supplied IRIS-T air defence system had performed well under attack, in the first confirmation that the system supplied on October 11 and put into operation on October 17 was effective.
Defence minister Oleksyi Reznikov expected air defence to be greatly strengthened in the next two months with the arrival of new systems.
US president Joe Biden was reportedly considering expediting to Ukraine Hawk interceptor missiles to bolster air defences.
Mixed signals
Ukraine’s spirit contrasted with mixed signals coming from its key allies.
French president Emmanuel Macron, who has provided César howitzers and promised Crotale air defences, told a Catholic-organised event in Rome that “the prospect of peace exists, when Ukraine comes to such a decision,” suggesting Ukraine should exchange land for peace.
In Washington, a groupof 30 liberal lawmakers wrote to US president Joe Biden suggesting he open direct negotiations with Moscow, adding to his support for Ukraine a “proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a cease fire.”
The letter made Democrats appear divided in their support for Ukraine days ahead of US midterm elections on November 8, and the signatories withdrew it after 24 hours.
The letter came days after Republican House minority leader Kevin McCarthy appeared to suggest that his party would reduce military aid to Ukraine should it win a majority.
“I think people are going to be sitting in a recession, and they’re not going to want to write a blank cheque to Ukraine. They just won’t do it,” he said in an interview.
In contrast, a clear signal of support for Ukraine came from Italy’s first female prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, a right-wing populist who campaigned on the need to lower energy costs heightened by the war.
“Anyone who believes it is possible to trade Ukraine’s freedom for our peace of mind is mistaken,” she told parliament in her maiden speech. “Giving in to Putin’s blackmail on energy would not solve the problem, it would exacerbate it.”