Turkey is testing European sovereignty and resolve

Turkey demands more maritime jurisdiction in the eastern Mediterranean than international law awards it. Greece and Cyprus stand in its way. Here is some background to its dispute with them.

A Greek frigate taking part in the exercise Trojan Horse 2022 (Δούρειος Ίππος 2022) on October 24

Source: Hellenic Joint Chiefs of Staff

Twice in the summer of 2020, Greece and Turkey were poised to clash in the Eastern Mediterranean. On July 21 and August 10, Turkey announced it would start looking for oil and gas deposits on what Greece considers its continental shelf east of Crete.

The Greek armed forces went on alert. Greek and Turkish navies fanned out across the Aegean and east Mediterranean.

The two NATO allies came closer to open conflict than they had since 1996, when Turkey planted a flag on a rocky Greek islet in the Aegean, and since 1987 and 1976, when Turkey again threatened to conduct seismic surveys in the north Aegean (on those occasions it was deterred).

While war in the Aegean cannot be ruled out, it is unlikely to be Turkey’s preferred option. It would isolate Turkey diplomatically, and possibly bankrupt it with sanctions. It is more likely that Turkey seeks to corner Greece into a maritime territorial settlement that skirts past established international legal norms, or forces Greece, and later Cyprus, to declare their vast continental shelves joint development zones with Turkey.