Russia resumes hostilities
Russia appeared to expand its territorial ambitions in the 21st week of its war on Ukraine, as it resumed the offensive in the eastern Donetsk region and met with some rare international support.
In an interview with Russian newspaper Ria Novosti, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia had departed from its shrunken official goal of occupying the two eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. “It is not only about the DNR and LNR,” said Lavrov, referring to the regions by the acronyms of their self-proclaimed people’s republics, “but also the Kherson region, the Zaporizhia region, and also other territories,” he said.
After Russian forces withdrew from Kiev on March 25, Lavrov had said that the “special military operation” in Ukraine was over and Russia would focus on the two eastern regions.
Kherson and Zaporizhia are Ukraine’s regions neighbouring the Crimea, which Russia occupied in 2014 and appears to be preparing to annex. Russia has made Russian passports obligatory as a form of identification for people approaching state services in the occupied sections of those regions. It has established the Russian curriculum in local schools and Russian television and mobile telephone networks. Its most recent decree extends Russian censorship law to Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, criminalising criticism of Russia. Offenders are punished by deportation to Russia.
Lavrov’s remarks are more in line with the Kremlin’s pro-war critics, who believe Russian president Vladimir Putin has bided his time. A day before Lavrov’s interview appeared, Igor Girkin, a former military commander who was involved in fomenting the Donetsk and Luhansk uprisings in 2014, wrote in favour of “the reunification of Novorossiya with the Russian federation along the line Kharkiv-Dnipropetrovsk-Kryvyi Rih-Mykolaiv-Odesa (all inclusive).” That would mean annexing all of eastern and southern Ukraine. Western Ukraine, Girkin suggests, could by annexed by Belarus.
Novorossiya, or New Russia, was the name given to southern Ukraine following its conquest and rule by Russia in 1764-1918, and includes the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia.
Days earlier, on July 16, Russian defence minister Sergey Shoigu ordered a resumption of the offensive in the east and south, ending a brief operational pause following the capture of Luhansk oblast.
Russia has made incremental advances in recent weeks, and paying for them with high casualties. “We are slowly but surely, like a heavy steamroller, moving forward, at times inferior to the enemy in terms of the number of personnel,” wrote Russian military reporter Sergey Ischenko in Svobodna Pressa.
Short on manpower
But Russian manpower problems remain. “A 10-day-long operational pause is insufficient to fully regenerate Russian forces for large-scale offensive operations,” said the Institute for the Study of War. “The Russian military seems to feel continuous pressure to resume and continue offensive operations before it can reasonably have rebuilt sufficient combat power to achieve decisive effects at a reasonable cost to itself, however. The resuming Russian offensive may therefore fluctuate or even stall for some time.”
Russia has made moves to address its losses, which Ukraine now estimates at just under 39,000 men in six months of war. CIA director William Burns estimates Russia’s dead at 15,000, and its wounded at 45,000. Russia’s initial invasion force was estimated at 120,000 troops.
Russian military reporters say an effort is underway to generate “dozens” of new battallions through voluntary recruitment. According to Biznes Online, the region of Tatarstan will provide two battalions of 400 men each.
In early June, the Kremlin reportedly ordered the country’s 85 regions (including the annexed Crimea and Sevastopol) to generate at least a battalion each, and has mobilised large financial resources to achieve this. Recruits will be paid a $3,500 (200,000Ru) sign-up fee, and $3,800-$6,100 (220,000-350,000Ru) a month. Family members are to receive health and life insurance and university places.
The Institute for the Study of War says many of these battalions are already in training, and estimates that Russia could generate a force of 34,000 men by the end of August if each region provides at least one battalion of 400 men each.
Ukraine’s military intelligence says Russia has opened 500 cadet classes and 1,000 junior army classes in Belgorod. These take in trainees aged eight to 18, and are deemed to be an attempt at long-term force regeneration, following losses sustained in Ukraine. Some Russian military observers are urging for compulsory conscription.
Russia losing ammunition
Russia’s problems are not confined to personnel. Ukraine has been striking Russian ammunition stores far behind the line of contact with increasing frequency, since it started receiving HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems from the US.
On July 13 Ukraine’s southern command said it struck Russian ammunition depots in Chornobaivka near occupied Kherson, and Novopetrivka in occupied Zaporizhia oblast. The next day, Ukraine’s Kherson administration said forces destroyed an ammunition warehouse in Radenska.
Ukraine’s military intelligence reported that Russian occupying forces delivered truckloads of artillery ammunition for storage in Kherson’s municipal theatre on the night of July 11-12 – possibly an attempt to discourage Ukrainian strikes by shielding ammunition inside monuments. Melitopol mayor Ivan Fedorov said Russian forces are storing military equipment and ammunition near residential areas to use civilians as human shields.
Ukraine’s southern command said its air force destroyed Russian matériel including an ammunition warehouse on July 16, killing 18 soldiers, in Lazurne, Kherson oblast. Former parliamentarian Sergey Khlan confirmed the overnight inferno of Seagull sanatorium, which he said the Russians were using as an ammunition depot.
The ISW says the destruction of ammunition depots has likely degraded Russian forces’ ability to sustain high volumes of artillery fire along front lines. “Detected heat anomalies from NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) remotely sensed data decreased significantly in Donbas starting around July 10,” says the ISW, noting that this also coincides with Russia’s operational pause of July 6-15.
On July 17 the destruction continued. A Kherson official said a cache of Russian munitions was exploding in Nova Kakhova in Kherson oblast. Ukraine posted video of the explosion. Ukraine’s southern command said its forces also struck two Russian ammunition warehouses in Mykolaiv oblast.
Two days later, Ukraine’s southern command said it destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Snigurivka in Mykolaiv oblast, killing 65 Russian soldiers. It also destroyed ammunition depots in Raiske and Berislav.
Ukraine’s military intelliegence reported that Russia has tasked its military attachés in the EU with recruiting local officials involved in the transportation of military assistance to Ukraine – presumably in hopes of targeting Western military aid before it arrives.
A day earlier, on July 15, Ukrainian defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov announced that the first M270 units had arrived in Ukraine. The M270 is a HIMARS-type multiple launch rocket system that carries twice as many rockets.
Russia meanwhile intensified attacks on civilians (see Timeline). The worst of the week came on July 14, when a salvo of Kalibr missiles killed at least 23 people in Vinnytsia, 200km southwest of Kyiv.
There was a rare bit of good diplomatic news for Russia, which has been isolated by Western opprobrium and sanctions.
Iranian supreme leader ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Russian president Vladimir Putin that his invasion of Ukraine was justified, during a meeting in Tehran on July 19. “War is a violent and difficult issue and the Islamic Republic is in no way happy that civilians get caught up in it, but concerning Ukraine, had you not taken the initiative, the other side would have taken the initiative and caused the war,” Khamenei was quoted as saying. “NATO would know no bounds if the way was open to it, and if it was not stopped in Ukraine, it would start the same war using Crimea as an excuse.”
Timeline: Week 21 of Russia’s war in Ukraine
July 13
Russian forces launch failed offensives east of Slovyansk and Bakhmut in the eastern Donbas region.
Kramatorsk mayor Oleksandr Gocharenko reports two Russian strikes on the city, including on the industrial sector.
The EU bows to Russian pressure and allows sanctioned Russian goods to cross its territory via rail, after a major diplomatic row. Russia is separated from its territory of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea by EU member Lithuania, which on June 18 banned the transit of sanctioned goods. Lithuania said it disagreed but would not contest the decision.
July 14
A Russian submarine fires three Kalibr missiles from Cape Fiolent near Sevastopol in the Crimea, which strike Vinnytsia, 200km southwest of Kyiv, killing at least 23 and wounding at least 100 civilians. A further 39 people are listed as missing. A further two missiles were shot down. UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres says he is “appalled”. Russia attempts to justify the attack saying it was targeting a meeting of senior air force commanders with Western defence contractors.
Ukraine’s National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption suggests that Western sanctions target the companies that build the Kalibr and Iskander missiles, Novator and Design Bureau of Mechanical Engineering. Brigadier-general Aleksiy Gromov says these two types of missile were used in 630 strikes. He also says. Russia has stepped up airstrikes over the past week from 70-118.
Kramatorsk mayor Oleksandr Gocharenko says Russian forces target the city’s industrial sector, knocking out power supply to parts of the city.
In the eastern Donetsk oblast, Russian forces continue to attempt advances on Bakhmut and Siversk. Ukraine posts geolocated footage of a destroyed Russian ammunition depot in Nahirne, on the line of contact.
In the south, Russian forces strike Mykolaiv with nine missiles from the S-300 system, which is normally used for surface-to-air defence, reports Vitaly Kim, the commander of Ukrainian armed forces in Mykolaiv. The missiles strike two educational institutions and a hotel, among other things.
The US House passes an $839bn annual defence budget, including $1bn in allocations for Ukraine. Of this, $100mn is set aside to train Ukrainian pilots and ground crew on US combat aircraft.
Ukrainian military intelligence says Belarus is unofficially allowing widespread smuggling in both directions across its borders with EU countries Lithuania, and Poland, as well as its borders with Ukraine. The sanctioned country thus hopes to sell Belarusian tobacco products while passing on to Russia banned imports such as automotive parts, the intelligence services say.
July 15
Russian forces shell and air-strike a string of frontline settlements in eastern Donetsk oblast. Ukraine’s general staff say their forces repel a Russian attempt to control the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, a vital logistics lifeline, in the Bogorodychny area.
Ukraine’s air force announces that a volley of Kh-101 missiles has struck the city of Dnipro, far from any war front. The missiles were reportedly fired from Tu-95 aircraft overflying the Caspian Sea.
Mykolaiv mayor Oleksandr Sienkevych says more than 10 explosions are heard across the city, triggering an air alert.
The head of Dnipropetrovsk region, Valentyn Reznichenko, says a Russian missile destroys a school in Synelnyk region, with likely casualties.
EU announces first details of a seventh sanctions package against Russia.
July 16
Russian forces make limited attempts to advance on Siversk. In the south, they shell settlements in Mykolaiv oblast. Ukraine’s southern command says they strike Mykolaiv city with modified S-300 anti-aircraft missile batteries.
An Antonov-12B military cargo plane crashes in northern Greece while carrying 11 tonnes of munitions. Although the 8-man crew was Ukrainian, Ukraine’s defence ministry says the plane was private and not operating under its instructions.
July 17
Russian forces fire on settlements southeast of Izyum. Ukraine’s general staff report that Russia makes unsuccessful advances on Siversk and Bakhmut, in the eastern Donetsk region. Fighting is reported on the outskirts of Donetsk city.
In the north, Russian forces launch air and artillery strikes north and east of Kharkiv city.
In the south, Ukrainian forces repulse an attack on Grigorivka, which lies between the Russian front line and Zaporizhia. Russian forces also fire several multiple launch rockets into Zaporizhia itself, causing fires but no casualties, the regional military administration reports.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia has now fired 3,000 cruise missiles against his country.
July 18
Russian forces launch ground assaults southeast of Izyum, and towards the frontline towns of Siversk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the eastern Donetsk oblast.
Kramatorsk mayor Oleksandr Gocharenko reports Russian air strikes in the city’s industrial sector. Kramatorsk lies in the heart of the Donetsk oblast.
In the north, Russian forces continue to shell settlements north and east of Kharkiv.
In the south, Russian forces shell Ukrainian frontlines and are said to be bringing in reinforcements.
Mykolaiv mayor Oleksandr Sienkevych says Russian shelling results in about a dozen explosions in the city.
The Ukrainian National Resistance Centre reports that Russian forces are using civilian rail and water routes to disguise and protect the transport of ammunition.
The European Council approves its fifth tranche of military aid to Ukraine, bringing the total to 2.5bn euros.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy suspends his spy chief and prosecutor-general, saying 60 of their employees are being investigated for collusion with Russian authorities in occupied territories, raising questions about the heads of these bodies.
July 19
In Donetsk, Russian forces maintain their efforts southeast of Izyum towards Slovyansk, and reportedly destroy some Ukrainian equipment concentrations in Slovyansk. Ukraine’s general staff say Russia is preparing for a major offensive on the city from the north. Russian forces also continue assaults in the direction of Siversk, and reportedly make minor advances on Bakhmut.
Ukrainian deputy defence minister Volodymyr Havrilov tells The Times his country is biding its time to sink Russia’s entire Black Sea fleet. “They have to pay for their aggression,” Havrilov says.
Ukraine’s southern commands says Russia launched six Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea. One was shot down, while five struck houses in Odesa oblast causing six injuries.
Iranian supreme leader ayatollah Ali Khamenei tells Russian president Vladimir Putin that his invasion of Ukraine was justified.