Russia loses the initiative as Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive unfolds
Ukrainian officials say a campaign to take back occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts has begun in secrecy, and urge civilians to leave those regions
The Russian defence ministry said it was redeploying troops to Ukraine’s southern regions of Kherson, Melitopol and Zaporizhia, as Ukraine appeared to launch a long-awaited counteroffensive to take them back in the 22nd week of the war.
The redeployment throws Russia onto the defensive five months after losing a fight for Kiyv and placing its military emphasis on the eastern oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk. It has not yet succeeded in taking the two regions, comprising the Donbas.
Russian forces are ultimately trying to close in on Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the heart of the Donbas.
Wagner Group mercenaries appeared to have taken the Vuhlehirsk power station – Russia’s first significant prize in the Donbas in weeks – but Russian forces have been static since they forced most Ukrainian defenders out of the city of Lysychansk on July 2, despite the fact that a brief operational pause concluded on July 16.
“Russian forces have not made significant advances towards Slovyansk or along the Siversk-Bakhmut salient in the past few weeks and are continuing to degrade their own offensive combat power in localized fights for small and relatively un-important settlements throughout Donetsk Oblast,” says the Institute for the Study of War.
Now matters are growing worse for Russian forces, as Ukraine prepares to isolate them in the south. On July 19 and 20, Ukrainian forces struck the Antonyivski bridge across the Dnipro river, which separates Russian-occupied Kherson from the free portion of the region, rendering it unusable for heavy military resupply.
On July 23, Ukrainians posted video showing a strike on the Dariivka bridge, similar to the strike on the Antonyivski bridge. Kherson administrative advisor Sergey Khlan said, “This is a continuation of the operation to cut off the Kherson group of Russians from supply. Every bridge is a weak point in logistics and our Armed Forces masterfully destroy the enemy system,” describing the actions as “serious preparatory steps” towards a counteroffensive.
The following day, Military Informer, a Russian military blogger, reported that the bridge spanning the hydro electric power dam at the Novakakhova power station had been damaged by Ukrainian artillery, making it the third bridge in a row to be struck. Russian information sources said the bridge was being repaired.
The British defence ministry said the strikes on the three bridges on the Dnipro suggested the Ukrainian counteroffensive was “gathering momentum”. US national security reporter Jack Detsch quoted an unnamed US official source saying Ukraine has begun to take back parts of occupied villages in Kherson.
Khlan asked Ukrainians in the vicinity of military advances to remain silent ahead of official announcements. “There are gains, promotions. But you need to remain silent,” he said. He said “a breakthrough has occurred in the course of hostilities. We see that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun counteroffensive actions in the Kherson region.”
For the fourth time six weeks, Ukrainian deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk told residents in the occupied southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia to leave as soon as possible – both to protect their lives and to avoid participating in a referendum on joining the Russian Federation, which authorities worry may be imminent. “The Russian Federation sees that it is not perceived as a government, and therefore is in a hurry to hold so-called "referenda"… so find an opportunity to leave," urged Vereshchuk.
Dmitro Butryi, an official of the Kherson state regional administration, says civilians cannot escape because Russian forces are taking their cars – suggesting that their military transports are being targeted and destroyed, which the ISW says is “consistent with support to an active counteroffensive.”
Ukraine has begun to turn the war around
Much of Ukraine’s success in recent weeks has been attributed to skilful use of HIMARS – the US supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. It is this weapon that was used to strike the three bridges.
“Ukrainian forces have repeatedly demonstrated their skill in operating HIMARS and M270s, and 155mm Howitzers, and those skills have been crucial in the Donbas fight,” said US defence secretary Lloyd Austin after the Contact Group on the Defence of Ukraine met for the fourth time on July 20.
Moscow Calling, a Russian military reporter, says the arrival of HIMARS was a turning point in the war and calls their effect “colossal”. He says the sanctions will prevent Russia from replenishing the smart weapons it has expended so far.
Russian forces have been so discombobulated by the precision of HIMARS strikes that they have started using Ukrainian power plants as ammunition warehouses, evidently hoping they won’t be attacked, says Ukraine’s nuclear energy body, Energatom.
"The Russian military dragged at least 14 units of heavy military equipment with ammunition, weapons and explosives to the engine room of the 1st power unit of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant,” said Energatom. “The entire arsenal of imported heavy equipment with all ammunition is currently located very close to the equipment that ensures the operation of the turbogenerator. In particular, in the immediate vicinity of the main oil tank, which contains inflammable oil that cools the steam turbine. There is also explosive hydrogen, which is used to cool the generator," its report said.
Oleksandr Starukh, head of the Zaporizhia military administration, confirmed this tactic. Russian forces were using these positions to actively shell civilian settlements on the opposite side of the Dnipro river.
On July 22, Ukraine demonstrated the ineffectiveness of this type of cover, when a kamikaze drone destroyed a Russian Grad multiple rocket launcher stationed in the vicinity of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, killing three and wounding 12. The resulting fire also torched Russian barracks set up in the plant’s immediate vicinity.
Ukraine evidently expects Russia to use the same method at Enerhodar nuclear power plant, also in Zaporizhia region. The country’s military intelligence asked the residents of Enerhodar to text it the geolocation of Russian forces and provide details on their movements.
Manpower shortages and low morale have dogged Russia’s efforts. Ukrainian intelligence spokesman Kyrylo Skibitskyi told Radio Svoboda that Russia has formed eight volunteer battalions of 500-600 soldiers each, and plans to form another eight by the end of the month.
Russia ordered its 85 regions in June to raise a battallion each. In addition, Skibitskyi says Russia is assembling a corps of 10,000-15,000 in the region of Nishny Novgorod. But, he said, Russians due for conscript army service are resisting pressure to sign contracts that would get them sent to Ukraine.
Timeline: Week 22 of Russia’s war in Ukraine
July 20
Ukrainian forces repel a Russian attack on Bogorodichne, a town in the teeth of the Russian advance in the eastern Donetsk oblast. Russian forces need to take Bogorodychne to advance on Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, in the heart of the remaining free part of Donetsk. Russian forces may have secured Berestove, moving closer to their objective of Bakhmut, which is crossed by two logistics highways.
The Contact Group on the Defence of Ukraine meets for the fourth time and pledges undisclosed weapons deliveries.
The EU bans Russian gold and freezes the assets of Sberbank, Russia’s top lender, as part of a seventh set of sanctions. Russia is the world’s second-largest gold producer, making $15.45bn in sales last year.
In an interview with Russian newspaper Ria Novosti, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia had departed from its shrunken official goal of occupying the two eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, saying Zaporizhia and Kherson in the south are also important.
Ukrainian military intelligence reports that Russia is exporting stolen Ukrainian grain. Two Russian dry bulk carriers loaded with a total of 54,000 tonnes of such grain, the Matros Koshka and Matros Pozhynich, were reportedly refused entry in Beirut, and were redirected to Latakia and Tartus in Syria. From there, Ukraine says, Russia plans to truck the stolen grain to buyers in the Middle East.
EU high representative Josep Borrell says EU members agree to release a 5th trance of military assistance worth 500mn euros.
July 21
Russia shells settlements in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts without making any significant advances. Ukraine’s general staff say their forces repulse a Russian attack in the vicinity of the Lysychansk refinery, showing that Luhansk oblast is still not entirely under Russian control.
In the southern Kherson region, Ukraine says it has destroyed a Russian ammunition warehouse.
Mykolaiv state administrator Vitalyi Kim says Russia fires seven S-300 anti-air missiles into Mykolaiv city at 3am, striking a petrol station and a gas line, among other things. The shelling of Mykolaiv district also continues, he says.
Ukrainian intelligence spokesman Kyrylo Skibitskyi says Ukraine estimates that Russia has used up 55-60% of its total pre-war stocks of Iskander, Kalibr and Kh-101 and Kh555 precision guided missiles during the war in Ukraine. The Iskander are land-based ballistic missiles. The Kalibr are ship-launched cruise missiles. Kh-101 and Kh-555 are air-launched cruise missiles.
Ukraine’s general staff says British defence secretary Ben Wallace’s next military aid package will include 50,000 rounds of howitzer shells, hundreds of drones and 1,600 anti-tank missies.
July 22
Russian forces shell the city of Slovyansk, says the military administrator of Donetsk oblast Pavlo Kirilenko, but they fail to make any advances towards it or Siversk, which is closer to the Russian front line. Wagner mercenaries may have made a little progress in the direction of Bakhmut.
Ukraine’s southern command says two ammunition depots are damaged.
Russia and Ukraine sign a UN-brokered agreement allowing the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirms an agreement has been reached allowing Ukraine to export last year’s and this year’s grain harvests.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, calls “absolutely unrealistic” fears that Russia might use a demined naval corridor for grain exports to send a landing force to Ukraine. “The coast is already protected by coastal missile complexes, which make such actions absolutely impossible,” Budanov says. "We do not see any threats from a military point of view. There is a developed fairway. Vessels will exclusively move along this fairway. No part of the coast, except for the indicated fairway, will be demined," Budanov says.
Russia says it destroyed four HIMARS launchers between July 5 and 20. Kiev denies the claim.
July 23
Two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles hit the port of Odesa, a day after an international agreement allowing Ukraine to export its grain, bypassing a Russian blockade. Ukraine says it intercepted another two missiles.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says defenders in Kherson are advancing “step by step” to retake lost territory.
July 24
Ukraine’s southern command says it has destroyed an ammunition depot and 54 anti-aircraft guns.
Ukraine’s military intelligence says Russia is preparing a new misinformation campaign about the bombing of the Mariupol theatre, in which hundreds of civilians were killed, making it the bloodiest atrocity of the war. Russia has reportedly invited film crews to record a narrative of how the theatre was filled with explosives and blown up from within.
Ukraine’s military intelligence says Russia has forcibly recruited civilian pilots in the war against Ukraine, underlining Russia’s manpower shortages.
Russian defence ministry officials say an attack on the port of Odesa – less than a day after Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement on resuming grain shipments from the port – only hit military targets. “In the seaport in the city of Odesa, on the territory of a shipyard, sea-based high-precision long-range missiles destroyed a docked Ukrainian warship and a warehouse with Harpoon anti-ship missiles supplied by the US to the Kyiv regime,” ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said at a daily briefing on Sunday.
July 25
Ukraine’s general staff say their forces repel an attack in Verkhnokamyanka, in Luhansk oblast, suggesting that Russian forces have not yet secured the province. Russian ground forces make a failed attempt on Siversk, the town at the apex of the Russian salient. In neighbouring Donetsk oblast, Wagner mercenaries reportedly take Novoluhanske, a town Ukrainian forces may have tactically withdrawn from.
Ukraine’s southern command says it has destroyed an S-300 anti-aircraft missiled battery.
Ukraine’s general staff report that Russian commanders are responding to the sabotage of armoured vehicles by troops who are unwilling to fight, by sending troops into battle without armour.
Ukraine’s agriculture minister, Mykola Solskyi, says Ukraine has $10bn worth of grain ready to export, and an additional $20bn worth of agricultural products that could be exported after that.
Ukrainian infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, says Ukraine will accompany convoys of grain ships with rescue ships, and that they will follow carefully mapped, mine-cleared corridors.
Ukrainian defence minister Oleksyi Reznikov says the first Gepard German self-propelled anti airfract guns are in-country.
The head of military intelligence, Kirill Budanov, will also head the Intelligence Committee, formed on June 17 by presidential decree, to coordinate the activities of intelligence agencies.
Ukraine’s military intelligence says Russian military hospitals are swamped with the wounded from the front and cannot cope. It says Russia plans to send more medical personnel to occupied areas near the front lines.
Ukraine says Russia has restored high-tension power cables in occupied Kherson oblast and are stealing Ukrainian electricity for use in Crimea. Ukraine cut the cables after Crimea’s annexation in 2015.
July 26
Luhansk oblast governor Serhiy Haidai says Russian forces still haven’t managed to take all of the eastern Luhansk province, and fighting continues in villages close to the border with Donetsk oblast. Russian forces make limited ground assaults towards Siversk, and northeast of Bakhmut.
In the south, Ukrainian forces continue to degrade Russian fighting capabilities, destroying a command post and ammunition warehouse in northern Kherson oblast, among other things.
Russian fighter planes in the Black Sea launch five Kh59 and eight Kh22 missiles into Odesa and Zatoka regions. They took off from Akhtubinsk and Shaikivka airfields in Russia.
Ukraine’s military intelligence says Russian forces are partially restoring a concrete factory in Meltiopol to mend the runway in that city and build long-term firing positions.
Ukraine’s general staff say the latest US military drawdown worth $175mn will include four HIMARS launchers, 580 Phoenix Ghost kamikaze drones, anti-tank weapons and ammunition.
Ukrainian air force spokesman Yuryi Ignat says US-supplied NASAMS medium-range anti-aircraft missile batteries have not yet been deployed. The US says it has supplied two such batteries.
Ukraine’s air force says four Kalibr cruise missiles were fired at Khmelnytskyi in western Ukraine. All four were shot down, a rare result. “The effectiveness of the use of air defense forces increases precisely due to the human factor,” says Ignat. “We are gaining experience that we did not have before, we are better organizing the interaction between units, and this is a notification system, and target detection, and decision-making.”
Russian state company Gazprom says it will halve gas supply through the Nordstream 1 pipeline to 20% of capacity, or 33mcm a day. EU energy ministers agree to reduce use of natural gas by 15% between August this year and March 2023.