Russia eastern offensive is becoming bogged down
What was meant to be a more focused and effective force is slogging through individual villages rather than smashing through Ukraine’s defences
Week April 27 - May 4
Russia appeared to become bogged down in a new military stalemate in eastern Ukraine during the 10th week of its war, as its forces made incremental advances but failed to score any major breakthroughs.
At the same time, Russia attempted to prepare to annex the regions it holds economically and administratively, while the US prepared to approve massive amounts of new military funding for Ukraine and the EU prepared to ban Russian oil.
Since it launched a second phase of the war on April 18 focusing on the eastern Donbas region, Russia’s lack of spectacular progress has been noted by analysts.
“Lack of unit skills and inconsistent air support have left Russia unable to fully leverage its combat mass, despite localised improvements,” said UK defence intelligence on April 30. Although Russia has put hundreds of Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems and UAVs out of action, Ukraine still controls the majority of its airspace, the UK says.
The Institute for the Study of War is also unimpressed by the second phase. “Russian attacks on Ukrainian defensive positions along the pre-February 24 front lines continue to fail to make substantial progress,” it said on May 1. “Repeated Russian failures to capture villages such as Zolote and Vilne suggest that pre-invasion Ukrainian defensive positions are too strong for Russian troops to storm.”
Russia has even failed to dislodge some 2,000 Ukrainian marines from Mariupol’s Azovstal plant, even though it formally declared victory over the city on April 21.
“Ukraine is slowly being turned into a second Afghanistan,” says political science and geopolitics lecturer Aref Alobeid. “When the Russians entered Afghanistan they were seen as a huge empire. Ten years later they were defeated and scattered. I believe the Americans are trying to achieve the same scenario here,” he told Al Jazeera.
“If the war lasts, say, another five years, the Russian economy will collapse. The Americans are not in a hurry, nor are the Europeans. Economically Russia is weak. Their economy is the size of South Korea’s.”
In the short term, at least, Moscow has been showing economic resilience,
spending lavishly to prop up its economy.
Central bank spending has brought the rouble back to pre-war value. Finance minister Anton Siluanov said the equivalent of $35bn had been spent on initial tax breaks. Another $112bn are to be spent propping up the banking system by subsidising mortgages and business loans.
For now, Russia is spending a windfall. Its 37% rise in government spending in March was offset by increased revenues in global oil and gas prices.
The long term may be a different story. US president Joe Biden has asked Congress to approve $33bn in new spending for Ukraine, dwarfing a previous, $13.6bn package and demonstrating US long-term resolve. Congress revived a World War Two-era Lend-Lease programme to ship weapons faster to Ukraine. Both Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergey Lavrov have shown their irritation with arms shipments to Ukraine.
Europe, too, is working on eliminating its greatest weakness - dependence on Russian oil and gas. Russian coal imports were banned in earlier sanctions. Now the EU is focusing on oil, and the biggest EU economy, Germany, has moved past a recent bout of vacillation.
As recently as April 27, German economy minister Robert Habeck said the country’s economy would tip into recession if a Russian energy embargo took place.
On May 2 that officially changed. “With coal and oil, it is possible to forego Russian imports now,” finance minister Christian Lindner and leader of the Free Democrats told WELT newspaper. Economy minister Robert Habeck, who leads the Greens, confirmed that position. “Germany is not against an oil ban on Russia. Of course it is a heavy load to bear but we would be ready to do that,” Habeck told reporters in Brussels before entering talks with his EU colleagues.
Germany says it has reduced its reliance on Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine from 35% to 12%.
Likewise, Germany overcame its reluctance to send heavy weaponry to Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz had told Der Spiegel he was trying to avoid a NATO escalation with Russia on April 22. But five days later he approved sending Gepard self-propelled, anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine.
Scholz signalled a historic policy shift in March, declaring massive new defence spending and a weaning off Russian fossil fuels over time. “It seems that under the pressure of public opinion, the policy shift has been accelerated with regard to both issues,” says George Pagoulatos, director of the Hellenic Institute of European and Foreign Policy, a think tank in Athens.
“It has been deemed important for Germany to be able to maintain its political capital and its position as a country of influence on the Western decisions that will be taken regarding the Ukrainian war and how to deal with Putin. This change of policy was important so that Germany would not end up being marginalised in the Western camp,” Pagoulatos told Al Jazeera.
The decision, he said, was primarily to protect German interests and its standing in the world.
“It doesn’t make a huge difference if Germany probvides heavy equipment in the overall military balance, because this equipment can be provided by other countries, but it makes a difference in terms of the attacks Germany is receiving from the inside and the outside, and in terms of it becoming more vulnerable politically. It was a pragmatic decision,” Pagoulatos said.
Germany’s shift leaves only two naysayers to an EU embargo on Russian oil, Slovakia and Hungary. But a challenge to European unity should lead to a new lurch forward in federalisation, said Italian premier Mario Draghi. In a speech to European Parliament, Italian prime minister Mario Draghi called for a “pragmatic federalism” in which majorities of member states can override vetoes.
Even as sanctions were set to tighten and its eastern ground war proved as hard a slog as its failed effort to take Kiev, Russia was reportedly preparing to annex the Luhansk, Donetsk and Kherson oblasts, which it almost entirely controls.
US ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter said Russia will try to absorb eastern Ukraine in mid-May. “According to the most recent reports, we believe that Russia will try to annex the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ and ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’ to Russia,” Carpenter said.
Vadym Skibitskyi of Ukrainian defence intelligence said Russia was planning to hold a sham referendum and declare Kherson independent by May 9 - the anniversary of Russia’s victory over Germany in World War Two.
Mariupol city advisor Petro Andryushchenko said Russian forces were taking inventory of residences in the city and planned to rehome people forcibly evacuated to Russia. Ukrainian defence intelligence Defence said businesses in Rostov, Russia, had received orders to produce seals and stamps for Mariupol’s occupation administrations saying, "Russia, the Republic of Donbas, Mariupol, the military-civil administration." It said Russia is considering integrating occupied areas of southern Ukraine into the administration of Crimea, which it occupied in 2014.
Master Roundup 10
April 27 – May 3
April 27
In the northeast, Russian forces take small towns west of Izyum to outflank Ukrainian defensive positions. In the south, Russia makes no headway against marines in Mariupol’s Azovtsal plant, despite continued indiscriminate bombardment, and prepares to secure the parts of Kherson oblast still held by Ukrainian forces. Both Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of preparing false flag operations in Transnistria, a Russian-controlled sliver of neighbouring Moldova, to involve that country in the war.
Ukrainian news outlet Defense Express reports that Russian chief of the general Staff, army general Valery Gerasimov, will take personal command of the Russian offensive in Izyum, which aims to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.
An explosion sets an ammunition store on fire in the Russian region of Belgorod bordering Ukraine. Russian anti-aircraft fire purportedly shoots down two drones in Kursk and Voronezh, two other Russian provinces bordering Ukraine, indicating that more sabotage operations were planned. Ukrainian presidential advisor Mikhailo Podolyak says the attacks are payback for the Russian invasion. "If you (Russians) decide to massively attack another country, massively kill everyone there, massively crush peaceful people with tanks, and use warehouses in your regions to enable the killings, then sooner or later the debts will have to be repaid," Podolyak says.
Russia cuts off gas flows to Bulgaria and Poland for refusing to pay for gas in Roubles.
A Ukrainian interior ministry official says a Turkish company fraudulently took $5mn for body armour and helmets it never delivered.
Canada says it will become the first G7 economy to amend its sanctions legislation and use sanctioned assets to help the victims of Russia’s war in Ukraine. “Canada will not stand idly by and watch President Putin and his accomplices attempt to redraw the borders of Ukraine with impunity,” Canada’s foreign minister Mélanie Joly says.
German economy minister Robert Habeck says the country’s economy would tip into recession if a Russian energy embargo or blockade took place. Germany revises its 2022 growth forecast to 2.2%, down from 3.6% in January, due to the war in Ukraine. Habeck says Germany’s dependence on Russian gas has dropped from 55% before the war to 35%. Germany partially reverses this position by the end of the 10th week of war, to accept a ban on Russian oil imports.
April 28
Russian forces continue ground attacks and shelling along the entire line of contact in eastern Ukraine, but fail to secure any advances. The Ukrainian general staff says Russian forces intensify strikes against the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, and drop heavy bombs on a local hospital. Russian forces launch several successful attacks from Kherson in the direction of Mykolaiv in the southwest.
Ukrainian defence intelligence says Russian occupiers in Kharkiv are forcing local merchants to purchase goods from Russian wholesalers in an effort to take control of financial flows in the local economy. It also reports that farmers are threatened with land seizure unless they work their fields, despite dangers from unexploded shells and a lack of working machinery.
Russia fires a missile into Kiev during the visit there of UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres. Russia says it destroyed anti-tank missile production facilities at Artem defence factory. “This says a lot about Russia’s true attitude toward global institutions, about attempts of the Russian leadership to humiliate the UN and everything the organisation represents,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says. The missile strike also destroys an apartment building, killing Radio Liberty journalist Vira Hyrych in her home, and bringing the media death toll in Ukraine to more than 20.
The US Congress revives Lend-Lease facilities to speed up weapons shipments to Ukraine. The programme allows US defence contractors to bypass usual bureaucratic channels and send weapons with a technical requirement to be paid at a later date. The bill passes the House by 417 votes to 10. It previously sailed through the Senate. Lend-Lease was first designed in World War Two to send weapons to Britian.
US president Joe Biden asks Congress to approve a $33bn spending package for Ukraine. Congress previously approved $13.6bn in military and humanitarian spending for the country. Biden also asks Congress to create new powers enabling the US to seize the assets of Russian oligarchs and use them to help Ukraine, as Canada announced it will do a day before. “This proposal would improve the United States’ ability to use forfeited oligarch funds to remediate harms caused to Ukraine by Russian aggression.” The US has already frozen oligarchs’ assets held in the country. Biden asks Congress to make it a criminal offense for anyone to knowingly profit from corrupt dealings with the Kremlin.
April 29
Russian forces shell the entire line of contact in east Ukraine, taking the town of Yampil west of Severdonetsk, while Ukrainian forces repel two other Russian advances. Ukrainian forces also repel Russian attacks near Izyum. Ukrainian defence intelligence says its forces have regained control of Ruska Lozova, a strategic village near Kharkiv, from where Russians had been shelling the city centre.
The Ukrainian general staff says Russian units are redeploying from Mariupol to join the main battle front to take Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. A US defence official says some of the units are heading for Zaporizhia in southwestern Ukraine. Mariupol city advisor Petro Andryushchenko says Russian forces are taking inventory of residences in the city in preparation for nationalising them, and tightening their occupational control. Russian forces continue to bomb the Azovstal plant.
European Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen says Russia’s decision to cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, because they refused to pay for it in roubles, “blackmail”. She says it proves Russia is an unreliable supplier.
April 30
Russian forces continue artillery and air strikes along the entire Luhansk-Donetsk frontline without making any advances. Mariupol mayoral advisor Petro Andryushchenko says Russian forces are resettling some city residents and plan to rehome people forcibly evacuated to Russia. Ukrainian forces continue offensives northeast of Kharkiv. Over 72 hours they have captured a string of suburbs northeast of the city and towns including Verkhnya Rohanka, Ruska Lozova, Slobidske, and Prelesne.
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov reiterates his call to the US and NATO to stop supplying arms to Ukraine, during an interview with Chinese state wire service Xinhua.
May 1
Russian forces maintain pressure on the Luhansk-Donetsk frontline with shelling, but fail to make gains. Russian forces have made limited gains in the direction of Lyman and Yampil.
Ukrainian presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych says a rocket attack in Izyum may have killed Russian major-general Andrei Simonov and the chief of staff of Russian airbourne forces. Russian forces continue to shell suburbs of Kharkiv. A US defence official says the strike narrowly missed Gerasimov, who is conducting a battlefield circulation to familiarise himself with conditions at the front.
Russian forces conduct a Bastion missile strike on Odessa, destroying its airport runway – a possible sign that Russia is preparing for an assault on the city.
Ukraine’s defence intelligence says a Transnistrian newspaper has published a request purportedly from the people of Transnistria, a breakaway section of Moldova, supporting “the involvement of the armed forces of Transnistria in the actions of the Russian army” in Ukraine. The newspaper reports that mobilisation points are being set up throughout Transnistria for people to enlist. Russia maintains 1,500 troops in the region, which declared its independence in 1992.
Germany says it supports banning Russian oil from the EU as part of a sixth upcoming round of EU sanctions against Russia.
Swedish foreign minister Ann Linde says neighbouring Finland will “quite surely” apply to join NATO in the coming weeks. "We know more or less that they (Finland) will apply for NATO membership. And that changes the whole balance... If one of our countries join, we know that tensions would increase," Linde tells public broadcaster SVT. Sweden’s social democrat government has said it, too, would join NATO if Finland, which neighbours Russia, did.
May 2
Russian forces shell Ukrainian frontline positions on the eastern front, but conduct no ground assaults other than to try to complete their capture of Popasna and Rubizhne. Russian troops appear to be positioning to attack Severdonetsk from Popasna, and Slovyansk from Lyman. Shelling of Kharkiv continues. Naval bombardment of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol takes place.
More than 100 civilians are evacuated from Azovstal plant to Zaporizhia.
Odessa regional government spokesman Serhoy Bratchuk says Russian missiles struck the only bridge connecting Ukraine’s last remaining port by road and rail to the capital, Kiev. The bridge has been struck twice before, Serhoy says.
Hungary was warned by Moscow about the attack on Ukraine and planned to annex part of Ukrainian territory, says Ukraine’s secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexei Danilov on a telethon. "Hungary has been warned by Putin that there will be an attack on our country. You saw her position. She thought she could carry away part of the territory. Well, we will see what the consequences will be for this country, "Danilov said.
Hungarian state secretary for international communications Zoltán Kovács tells the BBC that Hungary will not lift its EU veto on a ban of Russian oil and gas, because Hungary depends on Russia for 65% of its oil and 85% of its gas. Hungary is the only EU member to agree to pay for Russian gas in roubles, and one of two EU members blocking a ban on Russian oil. The other is Slovakia. Its prime minister, Viktor Orban, has said there are limits to how much a country can sacrifice for the sake of Ukraine.
Germany says it is willing to ban Russian oil immediately, in a change of position.
May 3
Russian shelling along the eastern front kills 21 civilians and wounds 27, the highest toll in a month.
In a speech to European Parliament, Italian prime minister Mario Draghi calls for a “pragmatic federalism” in which majorities of member states can override vetoes to collective action – a clear hint towards Hungary and Slovakia, which are blocking an EU ban of Russian oil and gas. “This is the start of a path that will lead to treaty revision. And if that’s going to be the case, we should embrace it,” he said, to applause by MEPs. He also calls for rapid EU expansion to include Albania and North Macedonia, whose candidacies have been stalled by the EU, and to include Ukraine, which applied on February 28. Draghi also calls for rapid defence integration and more efficient defence spending across the bloc.
Bulgarian prime minister Kyryl Petkov attends the inauguration of a floating regasification plant off Alexandroupolis in Greece. The plant is to supply Bulgaria and other countries with liquefied natural gas when it is operational at the end of 2023. Petkov says the plant will help break the region’s reliance on russian gas.
Russian losses as reported by Ukraine on May 3:
Ukrainian losses as reported by Russia on May 3:
24,200 servicemen
No report
1,062 tanks
2,793 tanks and other combat vehicles
2,567 armoured personnel carriers
475 artillery systems
1,267 artillery and mortar systems
162 multiple launch rocket systems
319 mulitple launch rocket systems
80 anti-air systems
287 anti-air systems
194 aircraft
146 aircraft
155 helicopters
112 helicopters
1,843 supporting vehicles
2,598 ‘special military vehicles’
10 ships/cutters
291 UAVs
697 UAVs
84 cruise missiles