Russia backs out of grain deal, threatening global hunger, and rejoins
A drone attack on Russia’s navy port of Sevastopol triggered a Russian threat reinstate its blockade on Ukrainian grain exports, but it backtracked
Russia rejoined a a UN-sponsored agreement guaranteeing safe passage to grain ships through the Black Sea three days after announcing it was backing out during the 36th week of the war in Ukraine.
Russia said grain ships may have acted as a cloak for an attack on its naval base at Sevastopol on October 29, but on November 2 said it had received written guarantees from Ukraine that the safe corridor would not be used for military purposes.
The move momentarily threatened Ukraine’s export income and hunger in the Middle East and Africa, but Turkey and the UN, who are also parties to the agreement known as the Black Sea Initiative, maintained the safe corridor during Russia’s brief withdrawal.
Drone attack
The attack on Sevastopol came at 4:20am on October 29. Ukraine released nocturnal footage of unmanned surface vehicles – essentially torpedoes embedded in boats – making their way towards Russian navy ships in or near the port of Sevastopol in Crimea.
The footage of one USV shows it approaching a Grigorovich-class frigate, identified as the Admiral Makarov, before cutting out. It is not clear if the frigate was hit. The Russian defence ministry said the Makarov was undamaged and a minesweeper suffered minor damage. Other footage shows an aerial drone exploding in the port itself.
Russia said it had destroyed all nine of the aerial drones launched against Sevastopol, and four of seven launched naval drones outside the bay of Sevastopol. Three of the naval drones made it into the bay before being destroyed, it said. Ukraine denied responsibility for the attack, but arms experts said the footage released online from the USVs suggested that the naval drones were of a type used by Ukraine.
“The Black Sea Fleet has three Grigorovich-class frigates, all of which are capable of firing Kalibr cruise missiles. A Ukrainian decision to target Kalibr-capable frigate at this time makes sense given the intensified Russian drone and missile strike campaign,” said the Institute for the Study of War.
Russia’s defence ministry said the next day that it had retrieved a UAV with its on-board memory intact and reconstructed its flight path from the Ukrainian coast near Odesa. The UAVs flew along the safe corridor used by ships carrying Ukrainian grain before veering towards Sevastopol, the ministry said, and suggested the ships could have been complicit.
"According to experts, this [starting point in the grain corridor zone in the Black Sea] may indicate a preliminary launch of the apparatus from aboard a civilian vessel chartered by Kyiv or patrons from the West to export agricultural products from the seaports of Ukraine," the Russian defence ministry said.
Such suspicions are not new. Russian president Vladimir Putin said on October 8 that a bomb that damaged the Kerch Bridge days earlier may have been carried out of Odesa on a grain truck. If that were proven, he said, he would withdraw Russia from the Black Sea Initiative.
The Sevastopol attack seems to have served as a substitute reason. Russia told the Initiative’s UN Co-ordinator in Istanbul it could “not guarantee the safety of civilian ships.”
No ships plied the corridor the day after the attack. Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis suggested Western military escorts to bypass the blockade, but this proved unnecessary. The UN and Turkey scheduled 16 ships for October 31, essentially calling a Russian bluff. Putin reacted by saying he was only suspending Russian participation in the grain deal, not ending it.
US secretary of state Antony Blinken called Russia’s withdrawal “a statement that people and families around the world should pay more for food or go hungry."
Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s ambassador to Washington, said it was Kyiv that had acted recklessly. “Everything has been reduced to false accusations of our country in the aggravation of the world food problem," he said.
When the July 22 grain deal was signed, Ukrainian agriculture minister Mykola Solskyi estimated Ukraine had $10bn worth of grain ready to export, and an additional $20bn worth of agricultural products that could be exported after that. So far Ukraine has shipped 9.5mn tonnes of grain to world markets, worth approximately $3bn.
Russia has had complaints about the grain deal, saying the UN did not honour a parallel agreement to help remove obstacles to the export of Russian grain and fertiliser to global markets. It also says promises to lift sanctions on Russian-owned ships carrying grain and fertiliser were broken.
Air raids continue
Moscow unleashed a barrage of drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure two days after the Sevastopol attack.
Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shmyal said 18 energy infrastructure facilities were hit, resulting in power outages. "Ten regions were hit by missiles and drones, where 18 facilities were damaged, most of which were energy facilities. Hundreds of settlements in seven regions of Ukraine were de-energised," Shmyhal wrote in his Telegram channel.
Kiyv mayor Vitaly Klytchko said parts of the city were without water supply and energy following airstrikes.
Russian state news agency Tass reported explosions in the vicinity of three hydro-electric power stations, Dneprovskaya, Dniester and Kremenchug, all along the Dnipro river.
Ukraine’s general staff said their forces had shot down 45 out of 60 missiles fired into Ukraine on October 31.
The strikes carried on the next day. Russia fired four S-300 missiles into the city of Mykolaiv, causing one death and damage to schools and homes.
Russia launched its campaign of aerial attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities after an attack on the Kerch Bridge on October 8, which is a vital Russian lifeline to Crimea.
In remarks to The War Zone, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said the Kerch Bridge attack was just an excuse.
“We possess information and evidence that that attack was pre-planned before the 10th of October and before the Kerch Bridge explosion. They just used the Kerch Bridge explosion as a pretext, as justification for those massive strikes at Ukraine,” Budanov said.
Ukraine has received one of four promised Iris-T air defence systems from Germany and one of six promised NASAMS air defence systems from the US. Both are in operation.
Most of the Russian attacks have been carried out by Iranian Shahed-136 drones, and Budanov said he expects to see more Iranian drones, namely the Fatteh-110 and Zolfikar SRBM, with ranges of 280km and 650km respectively. He also expects to see Russia producing the Shahed-136 drones Iran has been supplying so far.
Grinding ground war
Russian forces were reported to have edged closer to Bakhmut on Ukraine’s eastern front. Russian forces have been bombarding this key logistics centre for weeks. Its capture would disrupt Ukrainian military supplies and make it easier for Russian forces to march on Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, cities at the heart of Donetsk province.
The Institute for the Study of War said Russian forces had already falsely claimed to have captured several towns near Bakhmut. “Russian forces are likely falsifying claims of advances in the Bakhmut area to portray themselves as making gains in at least one sector amid continuing losses in northeast and southern Ukraine,” the ISW said.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, which is said to spearhead the Bakhmut effort, effectively admitted the stalemate when he said on October 23 that the Bakhmut front was moving forward by 100-200 metres a day, which he deemed a success. “Both 100 and 200 metres a day are significant progress. In the conditions of modern warfare, these are effective and confident steps forward,” Prigozhin said.
Chechnya-based Grozny TV reported that Col. Alexander Lapin was dismissed as commander of Russia’s eastern forces. If confirmed, it would be another indication of the Russian command’s unhappiness with the Bakhmut front.
Russian occupation forces in the southern Kherson region said they had completed an evacuation of 60,000 civilians from the west bank of the Dnipro river in anticipation of a new Ukrainian counteroffensive. Ukraine’s general staff said Russian forces were preparing to withdraw their artillery as well. Kirill Stremousov, deputy occupation governor of the region, said the Ukrainian army “continue to accumulate their forces to carry out a counteroffensive on Kherson.”
Budanov said Ukrainian troops were fighting every day to try and encircle Kherson city, but were up against some of Russia’s most capable troops – special forces, marines and airborne troops. He estimated that Kherson could fall as soon as the end of the month – a month earlier than his previous public estimate. Budanov also said he expected a Ukrainian counteroffensive in Crimea next year.
A Ukrainian counteroffensive launched on August 29 has recaptured 1,170 square kilometres of territory in Kherson.
Russia has tried to address manpower shortages with a mobilisation the Kremlin claims has put 41,000 men in the field and another 260,000 in training. The AP reported that Russia is also recruiting Afghan commandos trained by the US Navy Seals and Blue Berets. Three former Afghan generals told the AP that Moscow was drawing the men, in exile in Iran, with salaries of $1,500 a month and a promise of a safe haven. The men face execution should Iran deport them back to Afghanistan.