Putin’s campaign of terror on Ukrainian civilians speeds up weapons deliveries from allies
Pro-Kremlin media justify drone strikes far from the front as ‘critical infrastructure’ targets. They don’t seem to have helped Russian forces, which remain mostly on the defensive
Map of Ukraine showing Russian-occupied areas in red and territories recaptured in Ukrainian counteroffensives in blue
Source: Institute for the Study of War
Iranian drones joined Russian missiles in pounding Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure during the 34th week of the war, killing dozens of people and leaving many towns without power and the ability to pump drinking water.
On October 17 alone, 28 Shahed-136 drones struck Kyiv, killing four people. Despite the fact that Ukraine’s air defences shot down another 37, the ones that made it through helped put 30% of the country’s power stations out of action.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has asked Ukrainians to use less electricity between 5pm and 11pm.
Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba called on Iran to immediately stop supplying drones to Russia and on the EU to impose sanctions on Iran.
“In the last week alone, the Russian Federation has struck through more than a hundred Iranian kamikaze drones against residential buildings, power stations, sewage treatment plants, bridges and playgrounds in a number of Ukrainian cities. Dozens of people, including children, were killed and injured,” his October 17 statement said. “We call on Tehran to immediately stop supplying Russia with any weapons.”
Iran has denied supplying the drones, and Russia has denied receiving them, but Ukraine has ample evidence of their presence. Its air force says it shot down 223 of them since September 13, when they first appeared, and enjoys an 86% kill rate.
Ukraine’s defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov estimates Russia still has a stockpile of about 300 and plans to buy “several thousand” more. The turn to drones is likely dictated by necessity. Reznikov published stockpile figures suggesting Russia has fired two thirds of its most sophisticated missiles at Ukraine and has only about 600 left in its arsenal.
Putin has also reportedly been buying artillery shells from North Korea to replenish his dwindling stocks.
Outrage and help
The Russian aerial campaign prompted Estonia’s parliament to declare Russia a “terrorist state”.
All three Baltic republics called for the formation of a special tribunal to try Russian officials for the crime of aggression against Ukraine.
The International Criminal Court is currently investigation potential prosecutions for war crimes and crime against humanity, but the Baltic republics say a “jurisdictional gap” exists when it comes to the act of aggression.
European Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen called the attacks “war crimes”.
The hail of destruction on Ukraine’s cities also speeded up delivery of air defence systems and kindled new pledges of weapons deliveries from allies.
Air force spokesman Yuri Ignat said the IRIS-T air defence system supplied by Germany had already been integrated in Ukraine’s air defences and was operational.
Defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov said the first National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) systems promised by the US would arrive in Ukraine within October.
The UK said it will send Ukraine hundreds of AMRAAM missiles for the NASAMS launchers, while France promised Ukraine Crotale short-range, low-altitude air defence systems, which are effective against aircraft and missiles.
US president Joe Biden announced a new drawdown of weapons for Ukraine worth $725mn. The package includes vehicles and ammunition, including for HIMARS launchers.
Ukraine and its allies also began to look at more comprehensive and long-term air defence solutions.
US chairman of the joint chiefs Mark Milley said the US was looking into creating integrated air defence systems for specific areas of Ukraine, including short, medium and long-range air defence systems. "The combination of all these means will allow us to close the airspace for Russian aircraft," Milley said.
Yuryi Zozulya, an advisor to Kyiv’s mayor, said British and Canadian scientists were working on a protective dome to keep UAVs out of Kyiv. It would take about two years to complete but sections of it were already operational, he said.
The preoccupation with air defence proved infectious. German defence minister Christine Lambrecht announced that Germany and another 13 European countries will join forces to create a European air defence umbrella called European Sky Shield, to fill in defence gaps against drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
Russian narratives
Russia’s targeting of cities throughout Ukraine was stepped up after the bombing of the Kerch Bridge on October 8.
Maxim Alyukov, a research fellow at the Russia Institute in King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that led Putin to go along with the demands of nationalists and hardliners.
“Pro-war communities and military reporters on Telegram and, to some extent, hosts and participants on political talk shows, got very angry and while they were radical even before, pushing the government to announce mobilisation, and even to use nuclear weapons, after the Kerch Bridge was attacked, on state TV there was a narrative used that… ‘we are very humane and don’t target civilian infrastructure and power plants, and we should probably reconsider our strategy.’ After the Kerch Bridge they started saying, ‘now we are engaging fully’.”
Alyukov says civic or civilian infrastructure is presented as critical to the war effort, to justify its being targeted.
“Media used certain terms even before the current attack on Kyiv – ‘critical infrastructure’ and ‘decision-making centres’ meaning administrative buildings like parliament, government, security services, etc.,” said Alyukov.
“Now [after the Kerch Bridge attack] they use these terms to mean that this infrastructure is critical for the Ukrainian war effort. They try to avoid using the word civilian.”
Putin’s weaknesses
Despite spreading the war throughout Ukraine, Putin made little progress during the 34th week of the war.
The only area where Russian forces remained consistently on the offensive was around Bakhmut, in Donetsk region, where Wagner Group mercenaries are said to spearhead the effort. Russian forces have been trying to capture the transport hub for months.
Clashes there have been relentless. Ukraine’s defence ministry published a few seconds of video from the battlefields around Bakhmut - a scene of trenches amid pockmarked red earth and splintered bare trees.
“There are very complex, heavy battles going on there, [where] the enemy concentrated his most powerful forces,” said Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for Ukraine’s eastern forces.
In Kherson and Kharkiv Russian forces have been on the defensive against Ukrainian assauts since August.
Russia’s Tass news agency reported that Russian defenders prevented Ukrainian forces from crossing the Zherebets river in the area of Stelmakhovka and Makeevka in an effort to advance on Svatove, in Luhansk region.
Russia also said it had repulsed a Ukrainian attack on Bruskinskoye, Koshara and Piatykhatky, on the west bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson.
Local Russian officials speak defensively. “Our army is ready to repel all these attacks, to stand to the end, since the Kherson region is a full-fledged subject of the Russian Federation," said Kirill Stremousov, deputy occupation governor of Kherson.
Moscow is preparing to help residents of the occupied portion of Kherson evacuate to Russia, in a sign that its grip on the territory is weakening.
Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s armed forces had re-captured 1,620 settlements nationwide since the beginning of the war.
Putin has gambled on a mobilisation of 300,000 men but the political cost of that is high.
The Russian edition of Forbes Magazine has quoted Kremlin sources saying an estimated 600,000-700,000 Russians had fled the country since Russian president Vladimir Putin announced forced conscription for 300,000 on September 21.
On September 29, Putin admitted his recruiters had been indiscriminate. “Mistakes must be corrected and prevented from happening in the future. For example, I am thinking of fathers who have many children, or those suffering from chronic diseases, or those past conscription age.”
A poll conducted by the independent Levada Centre in 50 rural and urban areas found that 47% of Russians felt anxious or afraid of the mobilisation, and 13% said they felt angry. Only 23% said they were proud of Russia.
The unpopularity of the war at home has forced Putin to conscript more heavily in non-Slav, Muslim federal republics, but that has brought its own problems.
On October 17, three mobilised Tajik servicemen opened fire on co-trainees in Belgorod, killing at least 30. According to an eye-witness report, they had been offended by the Russian commander’s response to a complaint by other Muslim trainees that this was not their war. “Allah is a coward if he does not allow you to fight for the country to which you swore,” the commander is reported to have told them.
Putin declared that the mobilisation had ended on October 17.