Peace talks, Russian war fatigue bring glimmers of hope for Ukraine
IN week five of the war, Ukraine offered a detailed formula for neutrality, but both sides are pressing their advantages on the ground
Week five of Russia’s war in Ukraine brought some Ukrainian successes around Kiev and a Russian reorientation to the eastern front, suggesting the former superpower is giving up on regime change and focusing on territorial gains with a view to a settlement.
The week also offered a glimpse of what that settlement might look like.
Ukraine put forward a detailed proposal of neutrality as negotiators met in Istanbul on March 29. It would not join military alliances or host foreign troops, and remain a non-nuclear power.
This means Ukraine would give up its NATO aspirations, as Putin has demanded. EU membership, say experts, would take several years.
Ukraine named Israel, Turkey, and NATO members Canada and Poland as security guarantors. Russia, the US, Germany, Britain and Italy were named as potential guarantors. Military exercises would take place on Ukrainian soil with their permission.
Some experts say such a peace dents Ukrainian sovereignty and rewards Russia too much.
“In terms of international legal norms, it is absolutely unacceptable that stronger powers violate international borders and dictate their terms to the weaker side,” says Greek former deputy foreign minister Yiannis Valinakis.
“However, wars usually end up creating new realities on the ground… Russia will insist on at least partial demilitarisation of Ukraine,” he told Al Jazeera.
Valinakis believes security guarantees will be problematic for both sides. “I cannot see Putin‘s interest in accepting the proposed guarantees. NATO itself will not encourage its members granting security guarantees to Kyiv; in case of a Russian attack on a guarantor power, the Alliance would risk activating article 5 and thereby a catastrophic escalation to a Russia-NATO war.”
Ukrainian negotiator Oleksander Chaly highlighted the proposal’s positives. “If we manage to consolidate these key provisions… Ukraine will be in a position to actually fix its current status as a non-bloc and non-nuclear state in the form of permanent neutrality,” he said.
Territorial concessions in Luhansk and Donetsk would be discussed directly by presidents Putin and Zelenskyy, according to the Ukrainian proposal. The fate of Crimea would be the subject of a 15-year consultation.
“These are diplomatic formulas designed to alleviate public opinion pressure on Zelenskyy,” says Valinakis. “In the absence of a sizeable rollback of Russian troops to the east, I don’t see a very different outcome for the peace negotiations.”
The entire peace deal would be put to a referendum in Ukraine.
Military stasis
Diplomatic overtures were accompanied by Russian redeployments.
Russia unilaterally said it would “radically, by a large margin, reduce military activity in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions”, in the words of deputy defence minister Alexander Formin on March 29.
Earlier in the week Russia said it would focus its military activity in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the east, which it already largely controls.
“The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished,” said Gen. Sergey Rudskoy, head of the general staff’s main operational directorate, in what may have been a face-saving posture.
Russia has made little progress against Kiev’s defences, and US defence sources have said Russian forces are entrenching 15-20km from the city centre, suggesting they do not mean to press the offensive on the ground for now.
Russia has also been unable to capture Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol, 40% of which has been reduced to rubble. There are US reports that Ukrainian forces are contesting Kherson, the only city to have fallen into Russian hands.
NATO estimates that Russia has lost 7,000-15,000 troops during a month of war. The upper estimate agrees with Ukraine’s own assessment, and is equal to the number of troops Russia lost over a decade in Afghanistan.
These losses appear to be translating into bad morale. Western sources believe the commander of the Russian 37th Motor Rifle Brigade was deliberately killed when he was run over by one of his unit’s armoured vehicles. The unit has suffered a 50% casualty rate besieging Kiev.
Unity in outrage
US President Joe Biden visited Europe midweek to demonstrate the transatlantic unity brought about by the Ukraine war. He had to clarify that a remark made in Poland – that Putin “cannot remain in power” given the atrocities he has committed – was not a call for regime change in Moscow.
But the outrage Biden was tapping into underlies the US-EU unity he came to showcase.
“Vladimir Putin gave NATO and the EU-US consensus the kiss of life,” says Alexandros Mallias, Greece’s former ambassador to Washington. “NATO is entering a second youth… I never remember such strong cooperation between the US and Europe on countering Russia,” he told Al Jazeera.
Biden first called Russian president Vladimir Putin a war criminal on March 16. The following day, secretary of state Antony Blinken said he agreed. “Intentionally targeting civilians is a war crime… I find it diffcult to conclude that the Russians are doing otherwise,” Blinken had said.
On March 23, Blinken formalised that position, saying, “The US government assesses that members of Russia’s forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine... “Many of the sites Russia’s forces have hit have been clearly identifiable as in-use by civilians.”
This level of brutality also suggests Putin’s determination not to appear to lose, says Mallias.
“Since 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, every time we said Putin wouldn’t do something, our predictions were proven wrong… Someone who doesn’t hesitate to give orders for children to be killed, for cities to be levelled, wiped off the map, for hospitals and schools to be bombed – why would such a person have any compunction about using a weapon of mass destruction? He’s already causing mass destruction with conventional weapons,” Mallias told Al Jazeera.
Biden has at various times called Putin a “war criminal”, a “brute” and a “butcher”, straining faith in any possible future discussion between the two men. But the US and Russia stopped direct negotiations on February 22, the day after Putin invaded the Donbas, and Russia has since been isolated.
Friends with Turkey
Russian-Ukrainian talks are being hosted by Turkey, the only member of the NATO alliance not to apply sanctions on Russia. Last week Turkey seemed to try to profit from its neutrality.
On March 26, Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Čavusoglu appeared to encourage Russian oligarchs to bring their money to Turkey.
Interviewed by CNBC at the Doha Forum, Qatar, Cavusoglu said, “if you mean that these oligarchs can do any business in Turkey, then of course if it is legal, and it is not against any international law, then I will consider.”
Cavusoglu’s comments come 24 hours after Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, appeared to invite Russian oligarchs to park their assets in Turkey.
Erdogan told journalists accompanying him home from the NATO summit that he welcomed multinationals departing Russia.
Erdogan then added, “Apart from that, if there are certain capital groups that want to come to our country and ‘park’ their facilities with us, of course, we won’t keep our doors closed to them. Our door is open to them as well.”
Satellite images show that Russian oligarchs have been sending their superyachts and private jets to Turkey. Zelenskyy apparently supported this movement on March 23 when he urged Russians to “leave Russia, so as not to give your tax money to the war.”
Turkey has said it will only enforce UN-imposed sanctions.
Timeline: Week five of Russia’s war in Ukraine
March 23-29
Joe Biden flies to Europe, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators meet in Turkey, Europe acquires a defence doctrine
March 23:
Kiev’s mayor, Vitaly Klitschko, says Russian attacks have killed 267 people in the city in one day. Some 4,554 civilians are evacuated from cities through safe corridors.
British defence intelligence says battles across Ukraine’s north are static. A senior US defence source tells the Associated Press that Russian forces appear to be digging in to positions 15-20km from Kiev’s city centre, suggesting they do not intend to press the offensive there. Instead US intelligence reports Russian ships in the Sea of Azov appearing to try to land vehicles and supplies to the eastern front, where they are trying to take the port city of Mariupol and consolidate the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.
NATO estimates that Russia has lost 7,000-15,000 troops during a month of war in Ukraine. The upper estimate agrees with Ukraine’s own assessment, and is equal to the number of troops Russia lost over a decade in Afghanistan. A senior NATO official tells the WSJ the estimate of Russian dead, wounded, captured and missing is 40,000.
The Biden administration formally determines that Russia has committed war crimes in Ukraine.
Biden lands in Europe to attend G7 and NATO summits.
The EU approves a second 500mn euro package of military aid to Ukraine. The package was agreed at an EU summit on March 11.
A senior US defence official tells Reuters that the first shipments from an $800mn arms package for Ukraine will ship out of the US in the next day.
Putin says future gas sales to “unfriendly” countries, corresponding to the US, European Union members, Britain and Japan, will be denominated in roubles rather than US dollars.
March 24:
Ukrainian forces kill Russian lieutenant-general Yakov Ryazantsev, commander of the 49th Combined Arms Army, near Kherson in southern Ukraine. He is the 7th Russian general to have died in the conflict.
Western officials confirm that a Russian colonel has been killed by his own men. The commander of the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade was run over by one of his unit’s armoured vehicles. Western sources believe his men did this deliberately, angered by the 50% casualty rate they have suffered besieging Kiev.
The city council of the besieged port of Mariupol says Russia has illegally deported 15,000 civilians to Russia on buses.
NATO members meeting in Brussels say they will provide additional humanitarian assistance and help Ukraine protect itself from chemical, biological and tactical nuclear weapons, which the Biden administration says Putin is thinking of using. They fall short of promising Ukraine the no-fly zone Zelenskyy has been asking for, which would bring NATO members into direct conflict with Russia. NATO is reportedly considering providing Ukraine with anti-ship weapons. The Russian navy has blockaded Ukrainian ports and is providing logistical support to its ground forces.
The US pledges to provide Europe with 15bn cubic metres more natural gas than last year, bringing shipments to Europe to 37bcm this year. It pledges an additional 50bcm by 2030.
The Biden administration says it will accept 100,000 Ukrainians in need of international protection. More than 3.5mn Ukrainians are refugees in Europe.
Almost three quarters of the world’s countries vote for Russia to grant aid corridors and enable humanitarian assistance to reach besieged populations in Ukraine. The motion was carried by a vote of 140 out of 193 members in the UN General Assembly, with five votes against and China one of 38 abstaining. A similar number – 141 – had deplored Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a March 2 vote.
March 25:
Russia says it will focus on consolidating its control over the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk. Its defence ministry says Moscow-backed separatists already control 93% of the former and 54% of the latter. The move seems to suggest that Moscow cannot prosecute the war in western Ukraine.
More than 20,000 Ukrainians evacuate the town of Boryspol southeast of Kiev, to give their advancing troops a chance to counterattack Russian forces there. Boryspol hosts Kiev’s main airport. Britain’s defence ministry says Ukrainian forces have been recapturing towns and villages from Russia as far as 35km east of Kiev. Ukrainian troops also advance northwest of Kiev in an effort to encircle Russian forces in the suburbs of Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel.
A US defence official tells the AP Ukrainian forces are now contesting the southern city of Kherson, the only major city to have fallen to Russian forces.
Three US officials tell Reuters Russia is suffering fail rates of 20-60% in its air-launched cruise missiles, the Kh-555 and Kh-101. The Pentagon estimates Russia has launched 1,100 missiles since the war began.
Moscow ups to 1,351 the number of Russian troops it says have been killed in Ukraine. It says 3,825 have been wounded. Its previous official death toll on March 2 was 498.
Ukraine says 300 people died when Russia bombed Mariupol’s municipal theatre on March 16, making it Russia’s most deadly war crime. About a thousand civilians had been sheltering there.
More than 3.7mn Ukrainians have fled their country, 2.2mn of them seeking refuge in Poland.
March 26:
During a visit to US troops in Poland, Biden appers to suggest regime change in Moscow. “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,” Biden says of Putin. Biden backpedals on the remak the following day.
Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Čavusoglu appears to encourage Russian oligarchs to bring their money to Turkey where it will be safe from US and EU sanctions. Cavusoglu also tells CNBC that Turkey will not lend its S-400 surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine, and does not rule out purchasing more S-400 systems from Russia.
March 27:
Zelenskyy tells Russian journalists on a video call that he is willing to consider geopolitical neutrality for Ukraine, and to compromise on the status of the eastern Donbas region, which formed the pretext for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The comments come as Ukrainian and Russian negotiators prepare for in-person talks in Turkey during the week.
Russia has already seized more than half the Donbas during a month of war with Ukraine. In his nightly address to Ukrainians, however, Zelenskyy says he will prioritise territorial integrity in any negotiation.
Russia threatens legal action against the jornalists publishing the interview in Russia.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan tells Putin in a phone call that a ceasefire and better humanitarian conditions are needed in Ukraine. He is expected to host peace talks in Istanbul by Wednesday.
March 28:
The city of Mariupol mayor’s office says more than 5,000 civilians have died since Russia besieged the city. 170,000 people remain in the city, 150,000 having fled during the siege and 140,000 before fighting began. The mayor’s office says 90% of buildings have been damaged at 40% destroyed.
The European Commission proposes scrapping or amending the bloc’s Golden Visa programme, which allows third country nationals to buy residence and eventual citizenship in member states. “European values are not for sale,” says justice commissioner Didier Reynders. “We consider that the sale of citizenship through ‘golden passports’ is illegal under EU law and poses serious risks to our security.”
Investigative reporting outlet Bellingcat tweets that three negotiators, including Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich and two Ukrainian lawmakers, suffered symptoms consistent with chemical poisoning on the night of March 3.
March 29:
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators meet in Istanbul – their first in-person meeting in over three weeks. Ukraine puts forward a detailed proposal of neutrality.
Russia unilaterally offers to “radically, by a large margin, reduce military activity in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions,” in the words of Russian deputy defence minister Alexander Fomin. These are areas where Russia has been stalled, and around Kiev Ukrainian forces have been taking territory back.