Human costs mount in the third week of war in Ukraine
Refugees and displaced Ukrainians passed the five million mark, as Russia encircles cities and pounds them with missiles
Russia’s apparent inability to capture any of Ukraine’s top ten cities in three weeks of war resulted in heightened human suffering, as sieges tightened around Kiev, Mariupol, Chernihiv and Kharkiv and Russia lobbed missiles into the heart of urban centres, targeting hospitals, schools and high-rise apartment blocks.
The UN says more than three million Ukrainians are now refugees, and two million are internally displaced. Ukrainian officials say many thousands of civilians have died.
“A children’s hospital. A materinty hosiptal. How did they threaten the Russian Federation?” asked Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his nightly video address on March 9, after Russia bombed hospitals in Mariupol and Zhytomyr.
Bombs also fell on central Kiev all week, as Russian troops, apparently unable to advance, sent missiles from 15km away.
“Russian troops are methodically turning our life into a hell. People day and night have to sit underground without food, water or electricity,” the head of the Kiev region, Oleksiy Kuleba, said on Ukrainian television.
Russia escalated psychological warfare on Ukrainians – and especially on the port of Mariupol. Airstrikes hit a supposedly safe corridor to the city on March 10. Russian troops pillaged a convoy of humanitarian aid to it on March 12, and blocked another on March 14. Separately, Russian airstrikes hit a westbound train evacuating civilians from the east on March 12, killing one.
Those who do make it to Poland, Romania and other EU destinations are traumatised by the sight of destruction, the death of loved ones and family separation.
“I just talked to Yana a 13 year-old girl from Mikolaiv, evacuated with her family,” said Zoran Stevanovich, a UNHCR communications officer in Hungary. “She is not fully grasping the situation they are in. They don’t know where they are going to go, but she’s happy she has a hotspot. ..The elderly are probably the most vulnerable and psychologically in the most difficult situation,” he said.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on March 9 that the US is looking into providing Ukraine with anti-aircraft defence systems rather than approving the transfer of Polish MiG-29 fighter jets. Poland has been keen to tranfer its MiG-29s to Ukraine, but its prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, says this has to be approved by all of NATO.
Sanctions mount
International sanctions and resolve tightened further in the third week of war, with the European Union and the United States announcing a new round of co-ordinated bans of Russian imports.
The US House of Representatives approved a ban on Russian oil imports to the United States by a majority of 414-17 on March 10. The following day, the US led a new round of sanctions, backed by the G7. These include depriving Russia of its trade privileges under WTO membership, cutting off financing from multilateral institutions like the IMF and World Bank, and banning the import of signature goods like vodka, seafood and diamonds.
The French presidency of the EU on March 14 said member states had agreed a fourth package of sanctions against Russia, including revoking most favoured nation trade status and a ban on iron, steel and luxury goods.
There were signs that Russia is straining under combined military and financial pressure. Russian president Vladimir Putin welcomed unpaid mercenaries from Syria, and US officials told media on March 13 that Russia had asked China for direct military assistance, raising the prospect that China might also offer its ally financial assistance.
US national security advisor Jake Sullivan set out to meet with Chinese foreign policy chief Yang Jiechi.
“We are communicating directly and privately to Beijing that there absolutely will be consequences” if China helps Russia against sanctions, he told CNN. “We will not allow that to go forward and allow there to be a lifeline to Russia from these economic sanctions from any country anywhere in the world,” Sullivan said.
“The United States definitely has declared economic war against Russia,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
The World Bank’s chief economist said on March 9 that Russia is in “default territory”, as the country became increasingly isolated from the global economy.
“Russia is a poor country, it turns out, and not in a position to finance an extensive campaign,” says professor emeritus of history Thanos Veremis. “Russia didn’t want to show this, because a shroud of mystery is better than the truth.”
As it weakened Russia, the US strengthened Ukraine, with Congress approving a $13.6bn package of military and humanitarian aid on March 10.
International Monetary Fund director Kristalina Georgieva said on March 10 that the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia have led to a contraction in global trade, and the IMF is to lower its global growth forecast next month. It already downwardly revised its global growth forecast for 2022 by half a percentage point in January to 4.4%, citing renewed mobility restrictions due to the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and high inflation due to energy costs and supply disruptions. Georgieva says Russia will face a “deep recession” this year and no longer views a default as “improbable”.
Diplomacy not dead
Hopes for a negotiated settlement also rose slightly in the third week of war.
On March 10 Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba met in Turkey, in the highest-level talks since the war began. There was no ceasefire agreement but Lavrov left open the possibility of further talks and a meeting between the two countries’ presidents. He and Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu were to meet again on March 16.
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators expressed optimism on March 13. “I think that we will achieve some results literally in a matter of days,” said Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak. Russian negotiator Leonid Slutsky said, “According to my personal expectations, this progress may grow in the coming days into a joint position of both delegations, into documents for signing.”
“I imagine [the Russians] wish it were all over by now, and they are trying to find a solution in talks,” says Veremis.
The nub of negotiations will be the Crimea, he believes. “It seems [Putin] wants the entire littoral, which would landlock Ukraine. Are these negotiations real or sham – for the Russians to show they are negotiating and not intransigent?”
Timeline: Week three of Russia’s war in Ukraine
March 9-15
March 9: Russian air strikes target a maternity hospital in the besieged city of Mariupol, breaking a promise of a ceasefire. Reports speak of at least 17 wounded. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says three died, including an infant. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov says Russia believed the hospital to have stopped serving patients, and to be housing Ukrainian “radicals”.
The Kremlin says Russian forces do not fire on civilians, but Mariupol city officials say at least 1,200 civilians have been killed.
In Zhytomyr, west of Kiev, bombs fall on two hospitals, including a children’s hospital.
Streams of cars and pedestrians pour out of Kiev’s northwestern suburbs Irpin and Vorzel, as civilians flee bloody battles for control of the capital.
The International Monetary Fund’s executive board approves $1.4bn in emergency financing for Ukraine. “Financing needs are large, urgent, and could rise significantly as the war continues,” executive director Kristalina Georgieva says.
The World Bank’s chief economist says Russia is in “default territory”.
March 10: Russian forces bomb a supposedly safe corridor, preventing humanitarian supplies from reaching Mariupol.
“This is outright terror… from experienced terrorists,” says Zelenskyy.
More than two million refugees have departed Ukraine.
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba meet in Turkey, in the highest-level talks since the war began.
US Congress approves $13.6bn in spending for Ukraine, divided equally between aid for refugees and military aid for the front. Lawmakers say this is the beginning of a much larger commitment.
The US House of Representatives approves a ban on Russian oil imports.
Zelenskyy’s top economic advisor says the Russian invasion has destroyed 100bn euros’ worth of infrastructure.
March 11: Russia declares a ceasefire (“regime of silence”) as of 0700 GMT for civilians to be able to leave the five cities of Kiev, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Chernihiv and Sumy. The first three are the most hard-fought sieges of the war so far, and have seen the heaviest casualties of civilians trying to escape.
Satellite images show Russian armoured units manoeuvreing through towns on the northwestern outskirts of Kiev, and units towing howitzers into firing positions in Lubyanka just north of the capital, in what appears to be a regrouping ahead of an assault.
“Russia is likely seeking to reset and re-posture its forces for renewed offensive activity in the coming days,” says an intelligence briefing from the British defence ministry. Satellites show muzzle flashes and smoke from Russian heavy artillery pounding Ukrainian positions in Moschun, north of Kiev.
Zelenskyy says Russians have kidnapped the mayor of Melitopol, calling it “a new stage of terror”. Russian artillery for the first time targets the industrial city of Dnipro, in south-central Ukraine.
During a meeting of the Russian Security Council, Putin approves the deployment of up to 16,000 irregular fighters from Syria. Defence minister Sergey Shoigu says they wish to volunteer.
Ukrainian refugees number more than 2.5 million and almost another two million have been internally displaced, says the UNHCR.
The European Union issues the Versailles Declaration in response to the Ukraine War. Although it does not create a European defence capability, it moves in this direction, calling for member states to strengthen defence spending, investment, research and co-ordination, and asking the Commission to highlight defence gaps by mid-May.
The US leads a new round of sanctions against Russia backed by the G7.
March 12: In Mariupol, an AP crew films a Russian tank shelling an apartment building before being destroyed by Ukrainian troops, and an AP reporter is among medical workers targeted by Russian sniper fire. Russian forces pillage a humanitarian convoy trying to relieve the city’s 430,000 besieged residents.
A Russian airstrike hits a westbound train evacuating civilians from the east, killing one. Russian overnight shelling in the Kiev suburbs intensifies.
March 13: Russia broadens its targets westward, firing 30 cruise missiles at a military training base in Yavoriv, 25km from the Polish border. Most of the missiles are intercepted, Ukrainian officials say, but those that get through kill 35 people and wound 134.
Russian troops also fire at the Ivano-Frankivsk airport, 150km from the Romanian border, which includes a military airfield.
Zelenskyy calls it a “black day”, renewing his plea for the US to allow Poland to transfer its Soviet-era MiG-29s to the Ukrainian air force. “If you do not close our sky, it is only a matter of time before Russian missiles fall on your territory. NATO territory,” he says.
March 14: Top Putin aide Viktor Zolotov, who heads the national guard, becomes the first high-ranking Russian to admit the war in Ukraine is not going as planned. “I would like to say that yes, not everything is going as fast as we would like, but we are going towards our goal and victory will be ours,” he says.
Chechen warlord and Putin loyalist Ramzan Kadirov says Chechens have joined Moscow’s fight against Ukraine. He posts a video of himself addressing Chechen irregulars allegedly at Hostomel airport, 7km from Kiev.
The US warns China it will not tolerate any form of alleviation of Russia from sanctions, as national security advisor Jake Sullivan meets Chinese foreign policy chief Yang Jiechi for talks.
An aide to Zelenskyy says Russian forces have again blocked a humanitarian convoy trying to reach Mariupol, but the city council says 160 private cars manage to leave, making it the first civilian evacuation in two weeks.
Ukrainian refugees number 2.8 million.
Russian and Ukrainian delegations resume talks to reach a ceasefire. On Sunday they offered upbeat assessments.
The French presidency of the EU says member states have agreed a fourth package of sanctions against Russia.
An anti-war protester disrupts a Russian state television newscast by holding up a placard behind the presenter reading, “Don’t believe the propaganda.”
March 15: The Czech, Polish and Slovenian prime ministers ride a train to Kiev. “It is our duty to be where history is forged,” says Polish premier Mateusz Morawiecki. Zelenskyy says dozens of people have been killed that day as four apartment buildings are attacked, one of them catching alight.
Some 20,000 civilians manage to flee Mariupol, a fraction of the city’s population. The UN reports that Ukrainian refugees have now passed the three million mark.
Zelenskyy tells European officials he doesn’t believe NATO membership is a prospect for Ukraine, signalling possible grounds for agreement with Moscow in ongoing negotiations.
“We have heard for many years about the open doors, but we also heard that we can’t enter those doors. This is the truth, and we simply have to accept it as it is,” he says.
This is unbearable to even read, let alone be there physically.. @Alexandra Books