Europe's security discussion finds Greece dangerously unprepared

Greece lacks hard power in money, industry and professional troops as Europe transitions to defence autonomy, whereas Turkey credibly postures as indispensable

Turkey’s Kizilelma heavy unmanned aerial vehicle, unveiled in August 2022. Its manufacturer, Baykar, has in recent years seen sales soar to Ukraine, the Gulf and African countries.

In the past ten days, a European will for defence autonomy has begun to take shape. That is a good thing for Greece and Cyprus, which have for decades led European opinion surveys in favour of a common foreign and security policy, their trust in NATO shattered by Turkey’s invasion of Cyprus in 1974. It now remains to be seen what defence architecture Europe will create, but the withdrawal of unquestionable US security guarantees counterintuitively favours Turkey more than Greece. It became clear in informal gatherings in Paris and London in the past few days that Greece, for all its defence spending, is not a net contributor to European security, whereas Turkey, the chief cause of Greece’s security problems, can be, and Greece will need to punch above its weight diplomatically to help ensure that Turkey never holds a veto over European defence decisions.