Can Ukraine take back Kherson before Russia annexes it?
Russia and Ukraine seem to have fought each other to a standstill, and are expending increasing amounts of energy on the publicity war
Both Russia and Ukraine seemed stuck in a military stalemate in the 24th week of the war. Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the southern Kherson region made no territorial advances, and Russia’s offensive in the eastern Donetsk region seemed to have sputtered to a halt despite daily shellings, bombings and assault attempts along the entire front.
Some military experts believe the two sides have effectively fought each other to a standstill.
“Given how much attrition the Russians have suffered, the most they can hope for is to take the rest of Donetsk. I don’t think they have the capacity to take Mykolaiv, let alone Odesa,” says Panayotis Gartzonikas, a former armoured division commander in the Hellenic Army and lecturer at Greece’s National Defence College.
“The Ukrainians, with the rocket artillery they’ve received, have achieved some goals, but I think they cannot take Kherson... The Russians are south of the [Dnipro] river and the Ukrainians north. To take Kherson they have to cross the Dnipro, which involves a lot of things apart from rocket artillery.”
Ukrainian leaders had warned of an August counteroffensive in Kherson, prompting Russia to divert battallion tactical groups there and weakening their offensive in Donetsk. “I don’t know if there will be [a counteroffensive] in the end,” says Gartzonikas.
“What both armies lack most is trained armies. The Russians are increasingly relying on the Wagner Group and other mercenaries. Their tactic is to spend two weeks bombarding an area ten yards wide, and then to launch a platoon-sized offensive to take it, or a company at most. And the Ukrainians will be forced to do the same in any counteroffensive. There are no WW2-sized manoeuvres by entire divisions.”
Ukraine has been asking for more heavy weaponry, more swiftly delivered. Ukrainian defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov said he needed 100 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems – a guided multiple rocket launcher that Ukraine has used to devastating effect. But the US has promised 20 and delivered 16. The latest, $1bn US drawdown of military aid to Ukraine include HIMARS ammunition, but no new systems.
Presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak told Tagesspiegel magazine on August 7 that Ukraine needs more long-range artillery, rocket launchers and drones to defeat Russia. "If the West gets tired of the war, then Russia will strike again with all its might," Mykhailo Podolyak said.
Ukrainian forces are still using HIMARS effectively. Ukrainian Brigadier-general Oleksiy Gromov said HIMARS and other Multiple Launch Rocket Systems have enabled Ukrainian forces to strike 10 enemy command bunkers including three divisional level command posts over the past week. During the same period, Ukraine struck 15 ammunition, fuel and lubricants warehouses, Gromov said.
But such strikes have not yet enabled a ground assault.
The status quo may allow Russia to annex Kherson and Zaporizhia, creating a diplomatic inflection point. “If the occupiers proceed along the path of pseudo-referenda they will close for themselves any chance of talks with Ukraine and the free world, which the Russian side will clearly need at some point,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his August 7 video address.
A war of words
With stalemate on the ground, the two sides a publicity battle over ethics.
On August 3, Ukraine’s military intelligence said Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group incinerated Ukrainian prisoners of war in Olenivka on July 29 in order to remove evidence of “the improper conditions and forms of interrogation of Ukrainian servicemen,” using “a highly inflammable substance, which led to the rapid spread of the fire on the premises.” The UN has launched a fact-finding mission over the incident, which could lead to a prosecution at the International Court of Justice.
Russia, for its part, persisted in the myth that it has destroyed six HIMARS launchers. Pentagon spokesman Todd Brissil denies this as “patently false”, and that Ukrainian forces are using their 16 launchers "with devastating accuracy and efficiency".
Russia raises spectre of nuclear contamination
The issue that garnered the greatest publicity, however, was the risk of nuclear contamination at Zaporizhia nuclear power plant on the Dnipro river, which is Europe’s largest.
Ukraine says that since March 4, when Russian forces seized the plant and neighbouring town of Enerhodar, they have placed 500 troops with military equipment, tanks and ammunition in the engine room of the first reactor unit.
“The invaders' military equipment made it impossible for specialised firefighting and other equipment to access the engine room of the first power unit, which increases the risk of fire,” said Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation.
This Russian garrison has also fired into Nikopol, across the Dnipro-river, apparently to provoke retaliatory fire.
On August 1, US secretary of state Antony Blinken told the UN General Assembly, “Russia is now using the plant as a military base to fire at Ukrainians, knowing that they can’t and won’t shoot back because they might accidentally strike a nuclear – a reactor or highly radioactive waste in storage. That brings the notion of having a human shield to an entirely different and horrific level.”
Two days later, Ukraine’s state nuclear power agency, Energoatom, said Russian forces fired rockets and artillery into the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant around 14:30 on August 3, aiming at the 330,000 Volt transmission line out of the power station. “As a result it was damaged, emergency protection was triggered on one of the [reactors], diesel genrators were switched on.”
Hours later, Russian forces fired three rocket-propelled grenades that damaged the nitrogen-oxygen station and joint auxiliary building. “There are risks of hydrogen leakage and sputtering of radioactive substances. Fire danger is high,” said Energostom.
Russia said that Ukraine's 45th Artillery Brigade also struck the territory of the plant with 152-mm shells from the opposite side of the Dnipro river. Evgenyi Balitskyi, head of the Russian administration of Zaporizhia, said, “We are ready to show how the Russian military guards [the plant] today, and how Ukraine, which receives weapons from the West, uses these weapons, including drones, to attack the nuclear plant, acting like a monkey with a grenade.” Dmytro Orlov, mayor of Enerhodar, which neighbours the plant, said Russian forces fired into the city and framed Ukrainian forces for the strikes.
Matters got worse on August 5. Energoatom said Russian forces shelled the plant again, damaging three radiation monitoring sensors. “Timely detection and response in case of deterioration of the radiation situation or leakage of radiation from containers of spent nuclear fuel is currently impossible,” it said. “Apparently, they aimed specifically at the containers of nuclear [fuel], which are stored in the open near the places of shelling: 174 containers, each of which contains 24 assemblies of spent nuclear fuel!”
Russian forces responded that Ukraine struck the plant with a 220-mm Uragan rocket launcher.
“Every principle of nuclear safety has been violated,” said International Atomic Energy Agency director-general Rafael Grossi. “Any military firepower directed at or from the facility would amount to playing with fire, with potentially catastrophic consequences.”
How does one fight back?
The NGO Amnesty International sparked a similar publicity battle when it issued a report on August 4 chiding the Ukrainian military for basing men and equipment near houses, hospitals and schools, putting civilian lives at risk.
“Survivors and witnesses of Russian strikes in the Donbas, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions told Amnesty International researchers that the Ukrainian military had been operating near their homes around the time of the strikes, exposing the areas to retaliatory fire from Russian forces,” said the report.
Ukrainian deputy defence minister Hanna Malyar delivered a forceful response the following day, saying Ukraine has invited the International Criminal Court to investigate all war crimes committed on Ukrainian soil, and Ukrainian courts have convicted servicemen found guilty of such crimes since 2014.
In addition, she said, “Russians use the tactic of capturing and holding populated areas, and while we wait for the Russian enemy in the field, the Russians will simply occupy all our houses. Therefore, Ukrainian cities and villages are strengthened and defended against an international criminal, against a criminal state, which is the Russian Federation."
Focusing on the Ukrainian military and leaving unscrutinised the actions of Russian forces, “is like studying the actions of the victim without taking into account the actions of the armed rapist,” she said.
Ukraine has repeatedly called on civilians to evacuate the war-torn regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia. In Luhansk and Donetsk, evacuation became mandatory at the end of July, but Ukraine’s State Emergency Service says it has evacuated only 9,590 civilians from Luhansk and Donetsk since the beginning of the war.
Timeline: Week 24 of Russia’s war in Ukraine
August 3 – 9
August 3
Ukraine reports that its artillery destroyed a column of Russian armour in Kharkiv oblast, as it was moving into an attack position.
Ukraine’s general staff says Russian forces are shelling settlements in Donetsk oblast, and launched an unsuccessful assault on Berestovo. Ukraine also says fighting is ongoing in settlements east of Bakhmut.
In the south, Russian forces conduct a reconnaissance-in force at Bilohirka.
UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres launches a fact-finding mission into the bombing of a Russian prisoner-of-war camp in Olenivka, Donetsk, which led to the deaths of an estimated 50 Ukrainian servicemen.
August 4
Ukraine’s general staff say Russian forces try to break through defences at Husarivka in Kharkiv oblast. Ukrainian forces also repelled Russian assaults on Bogorodychne and Dolyna in northern Donetsk oblast. They also repel four Russian assaults east of Bakhmut.
Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia say they destroyed “a camouflaged command and observation post of the enemy, and right next to it – a large warehouse of munitions” with just three mines.
Aug 4: Amnesty International, the humanitarian NGO, publishes a report chiding the Ukrainian military for basing men and equipment near houses, hospitals and schools, thus putting civilian lives at risk.
Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai says Russian forces are pressing civilians into military service in parts of the Luhansk region they have occupied since 2014. “In the territories occupied in 2014, they have already mobilized everyone they can. Now even indispensable miners are being taken away. The euphoria of ‘liberation’ quickly passed in the recently captured cities and villages," wrote Serhii Gaidai.
August 5
Ukraine’s general staff say Russian forces make unsuccessful ground assaults on Avdiivka and Bakhmut in Donetsk, and Maryinka in Kherson. Ukraine’s air force destroyed four S-300 launch systems in the past 24 hour says spokesman Yuri Ignat. Russian forces have been using these anti-aircraft missiles to attack civilian settlements far from the front.
August 6
Ukraine’s general staff say that their forces push back Russian units advancing on the western outskirts of Bogorodychny in Donetsk. East of Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces reportedly push back a series of Russian assaults. Ukrainian forces also reportedly inflict heavy casualties as they repel Russian assaults from various directions near Avdiivka.
Ukraine’s southern command says its forces destroy 39 Russian rocket launchers and an ammunition warehouse.
August 7
Ukraine’s general staff report that in Donetsk oblast, their forces defeat Russian reconnaissance attempts in Dolyna, Bogorodychne and Bilohorivka, as they did a Russian attempt to improve a tactical position in Verkhnokamyansk. Numerous assaults on the Bakhmut area were also reportedly pushed back. Fighting is reported as ongoing in Avdiivka.
Ukraine’s southern command reports destroying 24 Russian multiple rocket launchers, a T-62 tank, five armoured vehicles and an ammunition warehouse in strikes against Berislavsky and one other location in Kherson oblast.
Russia’s defence ministry says Ukraine's 44th Artillery Brigade struck the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant for a third time, damaging a high-voltage line. Russia's defence ministry said power at reactors 5 and 6 was reduced to 500 megawatts.
Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai says Russia is sending residents messages on their mobile phones or on television, luring them to a referendum on the future of the region with promises of food and water. “’We will help you meet your basic needs if you go to the referendum. Otherwise, die, and we will draw the result without you,’ the message reads,” says Haidai. He says Russia is particularly targeting those made homeless by the leveling of Lysychansk, Severdonetsk, Popasnaya, Rubizhny, Girsky and Zoloty.
Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry says four ships with Ukrainian grain have departed the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk. The Mustafa Necati, Star Helena, Glory and Riva Wind are carrying a reported 170,000 tonnes of grain to Italy, Turkey and China. This is the second foursome to depart Ukraine after the Razoni, Navi Star, Rojen and Polarnet.
Dnipropetrovsk regional governor Valentyn Reznichenko says Russian forces fire 60 Grad missiles, wounding two civilians and damaging houses and power lines.
August 8
Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai says Russian forces made an unsuccessful but concerted attempt during the night to break through Ukrainian defences in seven settlements on the Luhansk-Donetsk border, demonstrating that even in Luhansk Russian forces are not yet in complete control.
Russia fires 20 Grad MLRS rockets into Marganetsk and two Kh-59 missiles at Kamianske, both in Dnipropetrovsk oblast in central Ukraine, as reported by the region’s governor Valentin Reznichenko. The latter strike destroys four warehouses of an agricultural concern.
Ukraine reports it has received three Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns from Germany. A total of 30 are expected.
The US announces its 18th drawdown of military equipment for Ukraine, worth $1bn. This includes an unspecified quantity of ammunition for the HIMARS rocket artillery system; 75,000 rounds of 155mm howitzer shells; 20 120mm mortars and 20,000 mortar rounds; and ammunition for the National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System (NASAMS), a state-of-the-art anti-aircraft system of which Ukraine has received two units. This brings to $9.1bn the military assistance the US has given Ukraine. There is no mention of sending more HIMARS launch systems. The US has promised 20 and so far delivered 16.
Partisans in occupied Kherson oblast launch the Voice of the Partisan underground newspaper.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls on the international community to react to Russia’s shelling of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s biggest. “There is no such nation in the world that can feel safe when a terrorist state fires at a nuclear plant. God forbid, something irreparable will happen - and no one will stop the wind that will spread the radioactive contamination. Therefore, a principled response of the international community to these Russian attacks on the Zaporizhia NPP - the largest in Europe - is needed now.”
Russian forces shell Chernovogrigoriv in Dnipropetrovsk, striking water treatment works and leaving 7,000 people without water, says governor Valentyn Reznichenko.
In Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and other oblasts administrators say Russia’s shelling and missiles have a purpose – to destoy as much unreaped wheat in the fields as possible, and to strike at farming infrastructure.
UN’s Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights records 5,401 civilians killed in Ukraine, and a further 7,466 injured.
A new report finds that Russia acquired technology from the US, Europe and Asia critical to the weapons it is using in Ukraine. Twenty seven weapons systems, ranging from cruise missiles to air defence, were found to rely predominantly on Western components, according to research by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) defence think-tank. All told, 450 foreign-made components were discovered in Russian weapons, says the report, Silicon Lifeline: Western Electronics at the Heart of Russia’s War Machine.
August 9
Russia plans to annex territories it has occupied in Mykolaiv oblast to its occupied territories in Kherson oblast, says a Russian military administration official. Yekaterina Gubareva, deputy head of Russia’s Kherson military administration, said the relevant decrees were being drafted.
“We are discussing a lot about the liberated territories, so that TV channels broadcast in these territories, whether we will pay social benefits there. Therefore, [a decision] was made to annex such liberated territories to the Kherson region so that it would be possible to pay pensions and social benefits there, and provide cell phone," she said.