As Russia advances, is Western support for Ukraine faltering ?
Ukraine is crying out for more heavy weapons now, but statements from Western leaders suggest the alliance is tiring of the war and wants Ukraine to accept a loss of territory or sovereignty to make p
Ukraine’s weary defenders continued to score successes against Russian invaders in the 16th week of the war, but Ukrainian leaders say they are also outgunned and in danger of losing territory in the Donbas, where Russia is focusing its offensive.
Western governments have pledged huge quantities of howitzers, armoured vehicles, anti-tank and anti-air weapons, but the politics underpinning these deliveries may now be eroding as the war lumbers on in a seemingly open-ended stalemate whose economic side-effects are taking a toll on global growth.
Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said Ukrainian forces managed to push the Zaporizhia frontline 5-7km south in the first two weeks of June. The Kherson city council says Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive on June 11 to take the settlements of Kyselivka, Soldatske, and Oleksandrivka, all within 40km of the Russian-occupied port of Kherson. In the Donetsk region, Ukraine’s Joint Forces command said on June 13 it had re-captured three settlements from Russia and pushed the front forward by 15km.
These successes are measured against a creeping Russian advance through the city of Severdonetsk, one of the last free strongholds of the easternmost Luhansk region.
Ukraine’s deputy head of military intelligence Vadym Skibitsky says Ukraine is on the verge of losing the battle there because of Russia’s superior firepower. “According to our estimates, Russia still has the potential to wage a long-term war against Ukraine,” said Skibitsky in an interview with Current Time. NATO weaponry is “still not enough to slow down the offensive pace of Russia’s armed forces,” he said.
Ukrainian fighters have been stealing advances when they can, but the manner in which Russia can roll these back was explained by Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai.
“A couple of days ago, special forces did come in and clean up almost half of the city,” he told RBC Ukraine describing a Ukrainian advance in Severdonetsk on June 5-6. “When the Russians realised this, they simply began to level it to the ground with air strikes and artillery. It makes no sense to sit in a high-rise building and wait until everything is completely destroyed.”
The grinding attrition of such war is evident in the casualties, says Ukraine’s defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov. “Every day we have up to 100 of our soldiers killed and up to 500 wounded. The Kremlin continues to press by sheer mass, stumbles, faces [a] strong rebuff and suffers huge casualties. But yet still has forces to advance in some parts of the front.”
This is despite the fact that Ukraine estimates Russia’s casualties to be two or three times its own and Russian morale low. For example, Ukraine’s general staff reports that Russian paratroopers from the 106th and 76th Airborne divisions refused to fight in Luhansk and are being sent home.
The remedy for this bloody stalemate is more weaponry, says Reznikov. While 90% of artillery requests have been met by allies, the operational needs are increasing. In a social media post, he said “Ukraine desperately needs heavy weapons, and very fast,” including “hundreds” of heavy armoured vehicles, fighter jets, anti-aircraft and missile systems, and multiple launch rocket systems.
"Either the world doesn't quite understand what's going on, or it understands, but it's tired and resigned to the fact that Ukrainians are dying," he told The Economist.
George Barros, analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, agrees. “The Ukrainians need better weapons with longer effective ranges in order to hit those Russian logistics convoys and to hit those Russian ammunition depots further back,” he said.
Is the world resigned?
Western leaders and analysts have made much of the punishing sanctions imposed on Russia, but they are not hampering Russia’s short term ability to fight.
Ukraine’s deputy head of military intelligence Vadym Skibitsky says Russia has extended its war planning for the next 120 days, and Ukraine’s main intelligence directorate estimates Russia can afford to prosecute the war at the current rate for at least another year.
The reason was recently explained by the independent Finnish Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Russia earned $98bn from fossil fuel exports during the first 100 days of its war in Ukraine, it announced, and 61% of exports went to Europe. Russia’s war cost has been estimated at a billion dollars a day, matching earnings from oil and gas.
The European Union has agreed to cut 90% of Russian oil imports, which form the bulk of its energy sales to Europe, but those cuts won’t happen until the end of the year.
This economic reality, rather than developments in the field, effectively determines a Russian victory, says Ioannis Mazis, chair of the department of Turkish and Contemporary Asian Studies at the University of Athens.
“By autumn it’ll all be over,” he told Al Jazeera.
“Crimea and a whole region that will include Odesa will essentially be ceded to Russia. If Odesa falls it won’t be through attacks. Mykolaiv will fall first, then there will be an easy [Russian] advance to Transnistria. Ukraine will become landlocked, referenda will happen in the autumn, and there will be annexations to Russia… Russia will predominate in the region,” he said.
Ukraine’s hopes of rolling Russia back to pre-invasion borders don’t seem to be shared by its Western allies.
NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg appeared to suggest that Ukraine will have to accept a loss of sovereignty or territory in return for peace, during a press conference in Finland.
“The question is, what price are you willing to pay for peace? How much territory, how much independence, how much sovereignty, how much freedom, how much democracy, are you willing to sacrifice for peace?” Stoltenberg said sitting beside Finnish president Sauli Niinistö on June 13.
His comments appeared to echo sentiments expressed by Henry Kissinger at the Davos World Economic Forum in May, that Ukraine needs to give up territory to achieve peace.
Pope Francis caused controversy on June 14 when comments he made in May were published in the magazine La Civiltà Cattolica. The war in Ukraine “was perhaps somehow either provoked or not prevented,” he said, seeming to ascribe just cause to Russian president Vladimir Putin.
There have been other cautionary statements from European leaders, in stark contrast to the more gung-ho US approach. Italian prime minister Mario Draghi last month called for a ceasefire “as soon as possible”, and French president Emmanuel Macron this month emphasised the importance of not humiliating Russia.
For now, though, the EU officially supports sending more military aid to Ukraine. As EU High Representative Josep Borrell put it on June 13, “Our military aid must reach the Ukrainian forces as quickly as possible, because they are not waging war with banknotes but with guns which enable them to resist Russian aggression.”
Timeline: Week 16 of Russia’s war in Ukraine
June 8
Ukrainian defenders continue to engage the Russian onslaught on the streets of Severdonetsk, belying Russian claims to have taken the city, says Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai. He says Russian efforts to surround the city have also so far failed, and the situation is “difficult but controlled”.
Russian Readovka News reports that Russian forces have taken control of Severdonetsk airport, 9km from the city, and Ukrainian defenders are fighting from a part of the Azot chemical plant in the city.
Russian forces have advanced to Sviatohirsk, 27km southeast of Izyum, but fail to advance south of Lyman to occupy the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets river.
Ukraine’s general staff says French Caesar howitzers are now in effective use in the field. Urkaine’s presidential office says Norway has delivered twenty-two 155mm M109 self-propelled howitzers. The US ships another planeload of M777 155mm howitzers.
The UNHCR says it has identified 4,253 Ukrainian civilians killed since the start of hostilities.
Turkey accepts as “reasonable” a UN plan to export Ukrainian grain by creating a safe corridor for bulk shipping from Odessa. The plan stalls on Ukrainian security concerns and Russian demands for sanctions relief.
June 9
Russian forces continue to try to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from their last stronghold in Severdonetsk, the Azot industrial area. Ukrainian defenders say they desperately need artillery reinforcements. “If we quickly get Western long-range weapons, an artillery duel will begin, the Soviet Union will lose to the West, and our defenders will be able to clean up Severdonetsk in two or three days,” says Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai.
Russian forces also make another unsuccessful attempt to take Toshkivka, south of Severdonetsk, which would pave the way for an advance on the Siverski Donetsk river from the south.
Russian forces advancing from Izyum continue to try to secury Sviatohirsk.
Russian forces strengthen their defences in Kherson, including the use of mines. The Ukrainian head of the Zaporizhia administration Oleksandr Starukh reports that Russian forces in Zaporizhia have received 80 new tanks over the last month.
Ukraine’s defence minister says Polish Crab 155mm self-propelled howitzers are ready for deployment.
Russian president Vladimir Putin likens his conquest of Ukraine to Peter the Great’s conquest of what is today northwestern Russia in a war fought against Sweden in 1700-1721. When Peter the Great founded St Petersburg and declared it the Russian capital “none of the countries in Europe recognised this territory as belonging to Russia”, Putin said. “Everyone considered it to be part of Sweden. But from time immemorial, Slavs had lived there alongside Finno-Ugric peoples,” he added. “It is our responsibility also to take back and strengthen,” he said.
June 10
Russian forces continue to shell Severdonetsk and attempt to storm the Ukrainian positions in the city. Pro-Russian media agree that Ukrainian forces continue to control the highway from Severdonetsk to Lysychansk and Bakhmut. Russian forces working their way north from Popasna are shelling settlements east of Bakhmut in an attempt to take control of the highway. Ukraine’s general staff believes Russia is preparing a new assault on Slovyansk.
Ukraine’s general staff say the Ukrainian air force conducted airstrikes on concentrations of enemy equipment in five settlements in the Kherson region, continuing the Ukrainian counterattack there.
Ukraine’s southern command says Russia has added a cruise-missile carrying submarine to the forces blockading Odessa, bringing to 40 their cruise missile capacity.
June 11
Ukrainian forces repel a Russian offensive to take full control of Severdonetsk. Russian sources claim 300-400 Ukrainian defenders are surrounded inside the Azot chemical plant and are negotiating terms of surrender for themselves and civilians there, but Ukrainian sources say this is propaganda as their side controls a third of the city including Azot.
The UK ministry of defence says Russia is attempting to field three active battalions from each brigade, stretching their operational ability to the maximum. Most brigades normally only commit a maximum of two of their three battalions to operations at any one time,” the UK MoD says. “The third battalions within brigades are often not fully staffed. Russia will likely have to rely on new recruits or mobilised reservists to deploy these units to Ukraine.”
Numerous sources say Russian occupation authorities issued their first passports to Ukrainian citizens – 23 in Kherson and 30 in Melitopol.
Russia continues to take Ukrainian produce. The Luhansk department of agroindustrial development reports that Russian forces transported 15,000 tonnes of sunflower seeds and 10,000 tonnes of grain from Luhansk oblast. It says Ukrainian producers are offered 30% of the price they would get for their produce in Ukraine.
Ukraine says there are 4.1mn internally displaced persons.
European Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen tells Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukraine will know whether it will be granted candidate status for EU membership by June 24th.
June 12
Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai says Russian forces have destroyed a second bridge across the Siversky Donetsk river and are shelling a third, in an effort to cut off Ukrainian forces in Severdonetsk from their lines of resupply. The tactic suggests that Russian forces do not plan to ford the river themselves. The Ukrainian general staff says it has pulled its forces from the city centre.
June 13
Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai says Russia has cut off all bridges to Severdonetsk, making further evacuation of civilians impossible, but evacuation still remains possible from Lysychansk. The third and last bridge to be destroyed was reportedly old and unsuitable for military vehicles. Haidai denies Russian claims to have encircled the Ukrainian forces. Defenders of Severdonetsk post video showing themselves in possession of the power plant in the industrial district.
In the south, Ukrainian forces attack Russian lines of defence on the east bank of the Inhulets river in Kherson district. Fighting is especially fierce around Davidiv Brid.
Ukraine’s defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov tells The Economist that Ukraine needs speedier delivery of weapons to keep resisting Russia.
NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg appears to suggest that Ukraine will have to accept a loss of sovereignty or territory in return for peace, during a press conference in Finland.
Russia earned $98bn from fossil fuel exports during the first 100 days of its war in Ukraine. Sixty-one percent of exports went to Europe, according to the research by the independent Finnish Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Some researchers estimate that the war is costing Russia a billion dollars a day, matching earnings from oil and gas.
June 14
Russia’s defence ministry says it will grant safe passage to civilians fleeing Severdonetsk on June 15. It says Ukraine requested the evacuation, having destroyed the last bridge out of the city towards Ukrainian-held territory to prevent its soldiers from retreating. Russia also says Ukrainian forces barricaded in the city’s Azot chemical plant are using civilians as shields. Ukraine says Russia blew up all three bridges out of the city and its soldiers are still fighting and don’t need evacuation.
Ukraine estimates that Russia has lost 32,300 servicemen since the war began.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuryi Ignat says that because it has been successfully denied access over unoccupied Ukraine’s airspace, Russia is increasingly firing low-precision cruise missiles from strategic bombers over the Black Sea. The imprecision of these weapons, plus the fact that Ukraine’s air defences, including S-300 and Buk-M1 anti-air batteries, are designed to shoot down aircraft, not missiles, means they often get through and hit civilian infrastructure. Nonetheless, Ignat says, the air force is having increasing success against Russian missiles, without elaborating.
Ukraine’s defence ministry tallies that it has shot down 213 out of 450 military aircraft deployed against it on February 24, and 178 out of 250 helicopters. However, Ignat points out, these losses are replenished from Russia’s deep reserves.
Pope Francis causes controversy when he says the war in Ukraine “was perhaps somehow either provoked or not prevented” – seeming to ascribe just cause to Russian president Vladimir Putin.