As Congress fumbles, Greece and Turkey sail into a gathering storm

Turkey’s Erdogan banks on ultra-nationalism to win an election, Greece feels pushed to extend its territorial waters, and America’s staying hand is trembling.

The exclusive economic zones Greece, Cyprus and Egypt can claim under international maritime law (UNCLOS), which came into force in 1995 and sparked Turkish expansionism.

The US House of Representatives spent most of January electing Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and becoming aware of the danger that it may achieve very little over the next two years due to divisions within the Republican majority. This crisis helped shield the American public from a new period of tension in the east Mediterranean, as have so many domestic crises since 2016.

After a period of relative calm in Turkish rhetoric against Greece, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his top cabinet members returned to familiar threats with unfamiliar vim in December and January.

Speaking to a rally in Samsun on December 11, Erdogan kicked off the new round of threats. “Now we have started to make our own missiles. Of course, this production scares the Greeks. When you say ‘Tayfun,’ the Greek gets scared and say, ‘It will hit Athens.’ Well, of course it will.”

Earlier this year, Erdogan spoke of doubling the Tayfun’s range if the Greeks didn’t behave, to applause from Turkish parliament.