100 days of war: Russia is 'losing' the war in Ukraine and uniting the West
Military and economic experts say Russia is losing despite some territorial gains - but is inflicting enormous human, economic and strategic damage in the process
Europe’s highest-intensity conflict since 1945 has demolished Russia’s myth of military might, cemented the Western alliance, bifurcated global finance and trade, and devastated the economy of Ukraine.
It has also re-taught military lessons learned decades if not centuries ago, say generals.
“We’re realising that firepower is the basic factor determining developments on the battlefield,” says Konstantinos Grivas, professor of geopolitics and modern weapons systems at the Hellenic Military Academy.
“We’ve seen how important artillery is on both sides – nothing terribly advanced – multiple launch rocket systems from the sixties, and rockets… with long range and high accuracy and high destructive power,” he said.
Russia fell back on its superior firepower because it has lacked good strategic planning. A month into the war, it gave up on a knock-out blow to Ukraine. “Russia set a broad political goal that couldn’t be achieved with military means… it was impossible with the forces deployed,” says Panayotis Gartzonikas, a former armoured division commander in the Hellenic Army and lecturer at Greece’s National Defence College.
Its second strategy appeared to be an encirclement of all of Ukraine’s forces in the east, as it established bridgeheads at Popanska and Izyum from which to effect a pincer movement. That, too, appears to have been abandoned in favour of a direct bludgeoning of Severdonetsk, the easternmost city in Ukrainian hands, and smaller encirclements elsewhere.
Sometimes Russia has even lacked tactical competence. Ukrainian forces decimated the Russian 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade last month as it attempted to cross the Siverskyi Donets river in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces were caught in transit. Almost 90% were killed or wounded. There have been reports of Russian mutinies amid the incompetence.
“Russia’s conventional military threat to Europe was overestimated,” says Grivas.
Where Russia has succeeded, it has done so by focusing overwhelming concentrations of firepower. The battle for Severdonetsk, for example, is being won by raining down mortar, artillery and rocket fire simultaneously on defenders. The results of similar tactics are seen in Mariupol, where 60% of the city is shot to rubble and three quarters of its residents are dead or have fled.
Ukraine’s more judicious management of resources defeated the Russian war machine in Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv. It is slowly abandoning Severdonetsk in the east to push back into Kherson in the south. The Institute for the Study of War finds this “strategically sound”.
“Kherson is critical terrain because it is the only area of Ukraine in which Russian forces hold ground on the west bank of the Dnipro River. If Russia is able to retain a strong lodgment in Kherson when fighting stops, it will be in a very strong position from which to launch a future invasion,” it says. “Ukraine must husband its more limited resources and focus on regaining critical terrain rather than on defending ground whose control will not determine the outcome of the war.”
But even fighting judiciously against Russia’s resources of firepower is grinding Ukraine down, experts say.
“The Ukrainian resistance has begun to bend under the pressure of the enormous firepower the Russians are unleashing against it… We’re seeing a war of super-high intensity. To win in this environment you have to be prepared to unleash a lot of destruction and to suffer great losses. It’s a question of who holds out longest,” says Grivas.
A compromise seems difficult at the moment, but inevitable in the long term, says Gartzonikas.
“Time is not on Russia’s side. On the other hand, Ukraine’s reinforcement is incremental. It’s not a basis for a breakthrough,” he said.
“Russia may make a few more territorial gains, Ukraine may have some successes, but the cost of war is very high, and… we might see a compromise for this reason, of cost, rather than any developments on the battlefield.”
The mounting cost and the division of the world
The human cost of this war of attrition is beginning to become apparent.
Ukraine estimates it has killed more than 30,000 Russians, but it has also lost tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians. It accuses Russia of forcibly deporting almost half a million Ukrainians to Russia. Some seven million Ukrainians are refugees in Europe.
Then there are material costs to both sides.
Ukraine’s finance minister, Serhiy Marchenko, said the war has so far cost $8.3bn on military and humanitarian expenditures – an eighth of Ukraine’s normal annual budget. The Kyiv School of Economics reports that damage to Ukrainian infrastructure amounts to about $100bn, and some analysts put it higher.
But Ukraine has received donations of equipment and aid - $53.6bn from the US, and 4.5bn euros from the EU. More is likely to be committed to reconstruction.
Russia has suffered less economic pain in the short term. Forbes Magazine tallied Russia’s cost through losses of equipment to $13bn, but this was paid for by energy exports, say economists.
“[Natural] gas has inelastic supply, so prices have gone up and you have had a doubling of revenues to Russia since the beginning of the war – something like $60bn,” says George Papakonstantinou, professor of economics at the European University Institute. “So if you think the war is costing about $1bn a day and they’re bringing in $1bn a day, it evens out,” he said.
The rouble has rebounded thanks to sanctions against the Russian economy. Bans on exports of Western goods and services to Russia have given the country a healthy current account surplus and very low demand for foreign currencies, say market analysts.
Longer-term it’s a different story, because Russia has no outside help. Western sanctions have cut off Russian banks from the global financial system, frozen half of Russia’s foreign currency reserves and stopped exports of sensitive technologies and key services to Russia. The US, EU, Canada, Australia and Britain have banned Russian coal and oil. The EU has a five-year plan to stop Russian gas imports.
This is evident in the way trade routes are altering. Europe is importing energy and food from further afield.
“The potential growth rate in the Russian economy will be much lower than before. It will have fewer trading partners, fewer foreign investors, it won’t be able to source materials and inputs, therefore it won’t be able to produce what it did before. Compared with [Europe] the hit is much, much bigger,” says Papakonstantinou.
“It is clear that Russia is losing. Yes, it’s absorbing some areas at huge cost, but it has suffered enormous losses on many levels, and it has created a gulf between itself and Europe,” says Grivas.
Given another four months of war, Papakonstantinou believes Western corporations’ divestment from the Russian market will be irreversible. But he foresees a long-term danger as well.
“We’re weaponising the world financial system - we have to, there’s no other way - so we are prompting Russia, China and India to develop an alternative messaging system to Swift, alternative financial safety nets, bigger trade relationships, more investment between them… the more we freeze Russia out, the more it will turn to China. And China will use that to the extent that it can.”
Timeline: The first 100 days of Russia’s war in Ukraine
Europe’s first high-intensity war since 1945 was met with unprecedented sanctions, an expansion of NATO and a bifurcation of the global financial and trade system
February 21: Russian president Vladimir Putin orders troops into the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, and recognises them as independent states.
February 22: The Russian parliament authorises Putin to use military force. US places full blocking sanctions on the Kremlin-controlled VEB bank and PSB bank. Germany immediately halts the process of certifying the Nordstream 2.
February 23: The EU freezes the assets of 351 Duma members.
February 24: Russia launches a full-scale assault on Ukraine Zelenskyy orders a general mobilisation. The US sanctions bars five more Russian banks from the US financial system, and freezes four of the banks’ US-held assets.
February 25: Russia vetoes a Security Council Resolution demanding it unconditionally pull its troops out of Ukraine.
February 26: The European Union says it will bar selected Russian banks from the Swift interbank transaction system, essentially cutting them off from the global financial system.
February 27: Russian troops press towards three cities, Kyev, Kharkiv and Kherson. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen says Russian civilian aircraft are banned from EU airspace, and Russian state-owned media Russia Today, Sputnik and their subsidiaries are banned from EU airwaves and the internet.
February 28: The EU approves a 500 million euro support package for the Ukrainian military. “This is the first time in history that the EU will be providing lethal equipment to a third country,” the EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said. Total EU aid has since risen to 4.5bn euros. Ukraine applies to join the EU. EU bans transactions with Russia’s central bank. Rouble tumbles 30%.
March 1: In a new offensive, a Russian convoy 65km long heads for Kiev.
March 2: Russian tanks enter Kherson, making the southern Ukrainian town the first major population centre (250,000 people) to fall. Russian forces surround Mariupol.
March 8: The European Commission unveils REPowerEU, a plan to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas by two thirds by the end of the year, surpassing in ambition the IEA’s plan unveiled on March 3. The US imposes a ban on Russian crude oil imports.
March 9: Russian air strikes target a maternity hospital in the besieged city of Mariupol.
March 10: US Congress approves $13.6bn in spending for Ukraine.
March 11: The EU issues the Versailles Declaration, calling on member states to strengthen defence spending, investment, research and co-ordination. The US leads a new round of sanctions against Russia backed by the G7.
March 16: Hundreds die when Russians bomb the Mariupol theatre, as civilians sheltered inside. Fighting reaches the city centre.
March 23: NATO estimates that Russia has lost 7,000-15,000. The Biden administration formally determines that Russia has committed war crimes in Ukraine. Putin says future gas sales to “unfriendly” countries, corresponding to the US, European Union members, Britain and Japan, will be denominated in roubles rather than US dollars.
March 24: On a trip to Europe, Biden pledges to provide Europe with 15bn cubic metres more natural gas than last year, bringing shipments to Europe to 37bcm this year. It pledges an additional 50bcm by 2030.
March 25: Russia says it will focus on consolidating its control over the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk, and starts to withdraw troops from Kiev.
March 26: During a visit to US troops in Poland, Biden appers to suggest regime change in Moscow. “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,” Biden says of Putin. Biden backpedals on the remak the following day.
March 29: Russian and Ukrainian negotiators meet in Istanbul. Ukraine puts forward a detailed proposal of neutrality.
April 1: An Al Jazeera report reveals that Russia is using proxy groups in Syria to recruit fighters for Ukraine.
April 2: As Russian troops withdraw from Bucha, a town northwest of Kiev, dozens of corpses in civilian clothes are found on the streets.
April 7: Ukrainian authorities say Russia fired a cluster munition into a railway station packed with thousands of evacuees, killing at least 52. The attack takes place in the city of Kramatorsk in the eastern Donetsk region.
April 8: The European Union bans imports of Russian coal, lumber, cement, seafood and fertilisers.
April 10: Russian forces bisect Mariupol.
April 14: Ukraine says it has sunk the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva with two Neptune missiles.
April 18: Russian forces launch a new, large-scale offensive in east Ukraine to take full control of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.
April 20: The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth of 3.6% this year and next, a downward revision of 0.8% for this year and 0.2% for next year compared to January forecasts, owing to the war in Ukraine.
April 21: Putin declares victory in Mariupol, though 2,500 Ukrainian defenders in the Azovstal metallurgical plant have not surrendered.
April 26: Austin presses delegates from 40 nations to contribute more weapons as soon as possible to Ukraine’s war effort at a military donors’ conference at Ramstein air force base in Germany.
April 27: Russia cuts off gas flows to Bulgaria and Poland allegedly for refusing to pay for gas in Roubles.
April 28: The US Congress revives World War Two-era Lend-Lease facilities to speed up weapons shipments to Ukraine. Biden asks Congress to approve a $33bn spending package for Ukraine.
May 2: Germany says it is willing to ban Russian oil immediately, in a change of position.
May 3: In a speech to European Parliament, Italian prime minister Mario Draghi calls for a “pragmatic federalism” in which majorities of member states can override vetoes to collective action – a clear hint towards Hungary and Slovakia, which are blocking an EU ban of Russian oil and gas.
May 4: A Ukrainian counteroffensive north and east of Kharkiv has pushed Russian troops 40km back from the city, in the first major Ukrainian success since winning the battle for Kiev.
May 9: French president Emmanuel Macron supports creating a strengthened form of association with the EU that would enable Ukraine and other EU hopefuls like Moldova and Georgia to enjoy many aspects of membership quickly.
May 11: Deputy prime minister Irina Vereshchuk says Russia has deported some 460,000 Ukrainians to 6,500 camps across Russia. Ukraine for the first time limits Russian gas transiting its territory to Europe, cutting by a quarter the flow of gas through one of two major pipelines.
May 12: Finland announces it will seek NATO membership.
May 15: Sweden announces it will apply for NATO membership, ending two centuries of neutrality.
May 17: Ukraine’s military declares an end to the Azovstal operation in Mariupol. Russia’s defence ministry confirms that 265 Ukrainians surrender.
May 18: The European Commission announces a 220bn euro plan to ditch Russian fossil fuels over five years.
May 19: The US approves $40bn in new spending for Ukraine, half of it military.
May 20: Former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder bows to pressure to resign his seat on the board of Russian oil giant Rosneft.
May 21: Russia says it has full control of Mariupol, after almost 2,500 Ukrainian troops surrender.
May 23: Ukraine sentences the first Russian soldier convicted of war crimes to life in prison.
May 25: Eduard Basurin, deputy head of the militia of the Russia-backed Donetsk People’s Republic, says Russia is for now abandoning the larger strategy of surrounding all of Ukraine’s forces in the east with a grand pincer movement, instead focusing on piecemeal isolations.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy blasts former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger for suggesting that Ukraine surrender land to Russia. He likens it with the policy of appeasement in the 1930s.
May 26: Russian forces continue a slow encirclement of Severdonetsk, and are reportedly in possession of the northeastern portion of the city. Ukrainian deputy defence minister Anna Malyar says “fighting has reached its maximum intensity. The enemy is storming the positions of our troops in several directions simultaneously.”
May 27: Russian forces advance on Severdonetsk from three different directions, and begin direct assaults on built-up areas of the city in the north, taking control of the Mir hotel.
May 28: Ukraine launches a counteroffensive in Kherson, reportedly bringing Russian forces to a “disadvantageous” defensive position and inflicting heavy losses.
In telephone calls with the leaders of France and Germany, Russian president Vladimir Putin offers to facilitate Ukrainian grain exports in return for an easing of sanctions against Russia.
May 30: After some hesitation, US president Joe Biden decides to send “more advanced rocket systems” to Ukraine to enable greater precision artillery strikes. The US will send guided multiple launch rocket systems (GMLRS) and the HIMARS high mobility artillery rocket system, to add greater precision and firepower to Ukraine’s defences.
May 31: Russian forces occupy the centre of Severdonetsk as Ukrainian troops make a tactical retreat. Fighting rages in the town of Toshkivka, south of Severdonetsk, as Russian forces attempt to complete an encirclement of Severdonetsk from the south.
In the south, Ukrainian forces press a counteroffensive towards Kherson, pushing Russian forces east of the Inhulets river.
The European Union bans Russian oil and petroleum products, following a decision on a sixth package of sanctions against Russia. A temporary exception is made for pipeline oil, after the objections of landlocked countries that they could not easily supply themselves by sea.
June 1: Russian troops hold the city centre of Severdonetsk and according to estimates up to 70% of the city.
Germany says it will send Ukraine the IRIS-T, the most modern artillery and targeting system it possesses. The system will come with radar that helps target enemy artillery.
Wonderful article John.